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#54 Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Close to Home


alexfall862

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Hello Coaches!

 

Welcome to the first Dev Diary for 2022 on the new recruiting system for this coming season.

 

Recruiting Dev Diaries for 2022

Dev Diary 54: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Close to Home

Dev Diary 55: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Other Affinities

Dev Diary 56: Recruiting Efficiency Score

Dev Diary 57: Recruiting on the Interface

 

With this diary, I want to take a moment to talk about the changes to close to home assignment for the next season. The goal for this offseason was to look at all affinity assignments and make sure teams were getting bonuses that made sense and that the system overall was reflecting something close to reality. This Dev Diary is for the Close to Home affinity, which affects around 60% of all recruits in a given class.

 

Close to Home Score

 

In order to compare schools' situations as close to objectively as possible, I developed a score to reflect the strength of a team's close to home assignments. There's a little bit of math behind it, but the gist of the score is that the higher the number, the stronger the close to home advantage that team should have.

 

 

 

The nitty gritty of the score is this: First, the source of the score is the 2021 recruiting class. Each recruiting region was scored by the number of recruits in that region (i.e. a region with 25 recruits would have a score of 25).

 

That number was then divided by the number of schools who were booked to receive a close to home bonus for that region. (i.e. if a region had 25 recruits and 4 schools assigned, the score would be 6.25)

 

Each school in the given region scores that they qualify for. In effect, this score should represent the number of potentially uncontested recruits for a school if all schools with close to home for that region did not compete against each other.

 

A score of 30 for a school like UCF means that they could theoretically get a full class and change worth of players recruited with a close to home bonus and not have them contested by other schools. A school like Utah St with a score of 2.6 means that even if everything breaks right and other schools in their close to home orbit avoid competing with them for recruits, they should only expect to have 2 or 3 recruits with the close to home bonus in their class.

 

In practice, not all of the players eligible for a school's close to home bonus will be worth signing, and schools are absolutely going to compete for recruits against each other, so the numbers aren't 1:1 to an expected outcome - but it gives both a point of comparison for affinity assignments and some broad context for the schools themselves even if it's not an exact match.

 

 

 

When comparing schools, first let's look at total number of players each school could recruit with a close to home bonus. This is the total number of players in CtH states for schools, multiplied by 60% (the percentage of recruits generated with close to home affinity):

 

 

 

 

SchoolAverage of Likely Recruits with CtH Matched
Rice307.2
SMU261
South Carolina249.6
Clemson249.6
Texas240
Florida240
Baylor240
Louisiana225
Notre Dame223.8
Auburn222
West Virginia221.4
Georgia Southern216
Florida State216
Texas A&M187.2
Houston187.2
Pittsburgh182.4
USF180
UCF180
Miami180
Florida Atlantic180
FIU180
Georgia Tech177.6
Georgia177.6
Texas Tech174.6
Fresno State173.4
Toledo172.8
Bowling Green172.8
Southern Miss171
Mississippi State171
South Alabama163.8
Maryland160.8
Michigan158.4
Georgia State156
Oklahoma State151.2
San Diego State150
Kentucky148.8
UNLV148.2
Cincinnati146.4
Eastern Michigan142.2
TCU141
Oklahoma141
North Texas141
Appalachian State139.2
Penn State136.8
North Carolina132.6
Ball State130.2
Arizona State126.6
Troy126
UTSA120
Texas State120
Temple119.4
Marshall118.2
Navy117.6
Virginia Tech113.4
Louisiana-Monroe112.8
Army112.2
Wake Forest111
Old Dominion111
East Carolina111
Duke111
USC110.4
UCLA110.4
Tulane105
Rutgers105
LSU105
Alabama103.8
Ohio102
Northwestern100.8
Ohio State99.6
Kent State99.6
Akron99.6
NC State93.6
Charlotte93.6
Western Michigan89.4
Nevada88.2
Oregon87.6
Missouri87
Northern Illinois84.6
Iowa84
Wisconsin83.4
Oregon State82.2
Purdue81.6
Indiana81.6
Virginia81
Western Kentucky75
Memphis73.8
UAB66
Boise State63
Arkansas61.8
Michigan State58.8
Buffalo58.2
Illinois51
Stanford50.4
San Jose State50.4
California50.4
Miami (OH)46.8
Louisville46.8
Mississippi45.6
Louisiana Tech45.6
Vanderbilt44.4
Tennessee44.4
Middle Tennessee44.4
Central Michigan42.6
Air Force42.6
New Mexico40.8
Nebraska40.8
Kansas40.2
Tulsa39
Washington State37.8
Washington37.2
Kansas State37.2
Iowa State37.2
Utah34.2
UTEP33.6
UMass33.6
New Mexico State33.6
Connecticut33.6
Boston College33.6
Wyoming33
BYU33
Colorado State32.4
Colorado32.4
Arkansas State30.6
Minnesota30
Utah State27
Syracuse25.2
Arizona21.6
Hawaii15

 

 

 

 

This is certainly one measure to see which schools have an advantage with close to home as an affinity, but one thing it doesn't capture is the degree to which multiple teams are competing for the same resources. After all, is Hawaii really the worst place to try and recruit players who want to stay close to home? Is West Virginia really that strongly positioned?

 

So instead of looking at total recruits, let's use the Close to Home Score.

 

 

 

 

School2021 Class CtH Score
Florida42
Georgia Southern33.66
Rice33.38666667
Florida State31.5
USF30
UCF30
Miami30
Florida Atlantic30
FIU30
SMU29.29166667
Georgia Tech28.99333333
Auburn26.83333333
South Carolina26.80285714
Clemson26.80285714
Texas26.66666667
Baylor26.66666667
UNLV25.89538462
Arizona State24.1
Texas Tech24.05833333
Fresno State23.54038462
Louisiana23.20333333
San Diego State23.125
South Alabama22.48333333
Georgia State21.66
Georgia21.66
Texas A&M20.05333333
Houston20.05333333
Troy19.33333333
Notre Dame19.25666667
Maryland18.87714286
West Virginia18.58214286
Navy18.57714286
USC17.91538462
UCLA17.91538462
Penn State17.75214286
Oklahoma State17.23333333
Southern Miss17.20333333
Mississippi State17.20333333
TCU15.95833333
Oklahoma15.95833333
North Texas15.95833333
Pittsburgh15.58214286
Temple15.57714286
Iowa15.37714286
Army15.215
Hawaii15
Rutgers13.655
Toledo13.59
Bowling Green13.59
Oregon13.48038462
UTSA13.33333333
Texas State13.33333333
Oregon State13.065
Wisconsin12
Appalachian State11.66785714
Arkansas11.65714286
Michigan11.55
Eastern Michigan11.55
Louisiana-Monroe10.845
Louisiana Tech10.845
Northwestern10.74
Missouri10.53214286
UAB10.48333333
Alabama10.48333333
Tennessee10.46785714
Kentucky10.365
North Carolina10.30285714
Western Michigan10.065
Miami (OH)10.065
Cincinnati10.065
Boise State9.955384615
Tulane9.87
LSU9.87
Akron9.625
New Mexico9.128571429
Virginia8.957142857
Kansas State8.457142857
Virginia Tech8.442857143
Marshall8.325
Ball State8.265
Wake Forest8.142857143
Old Dominion8.142857143
Liberty8.142857143
East Carolina8.142857143
Duke8.142857143
UTEP8.1
New Mexico State8.1
Northern Illinois8.04
Nevada8.020384615
Purdue7.706666667
Indiana7.706666667
Illinois7.706666667
Mississippi7.65
Memphis7.65
Washington State7.56
Washington7.44
Western Kentucky7.365
NC State7.302857143
Coastal Carolina7.302857143
Charlotte7.302857143
Syracuse7.255
Iowa State6.978333333
Arizona6.6
Ohio6.525
Minnesota6.453333333
Ohio State6.225
Kent State6.225
Stanford6.040384615
San Jose State6.040384615
California6.040384615
Buffalo5.575
Nebraska5.51047619
UMass5.415
Connecticut5.415
Boston College5.415
Kansas5.39047619
Vanderbilt5.325
Middle Tennessee5.325
Michigan State5.325
Central Michigan5.325
Air Force4.98
Tulsa4.875
Arkansas State4.232142857
Louisville3.84
Wyoming3.825
Utah3.715384615
BYU3.715384615
Colorado State3.705
Colorado3.705
Utah State2.686813187

 

 

 

 

This score does a good job of reflecting close to home advantages both in the sim and in real life. You can see all the rocky mountain schools tearing each other apart at the bottom due both to having few recruits in their regions, but also due to so many schools being in the same region. Instead of being ranked as the weakest school for close to home advantages, Hawaii is now in the upper middle of the rankings. This makes some sense, because while they may only have 25 recruits, there's no other competition that can argue a recruit could stay close to home without playing for Hawaii.

 

We've spent some considerable time talking about the Close to Home Score, and I want to emphasize that this isn't a measure we tried to fit our schools to, but a score that lets use know whether our existing assignments pass the 'smell test'. The actual work of assignment and reassignment of close to home regions was done with quite a bit of hand-checking of regions and whether a school would plausibly be able to make the argument to a recruit that they'd be able to stay closer to home than their other options.

 

In general, as far as straight geography, schools in the middle of the country have a geographically larger orbit in close to home regions and the coasts have a much tighter window to argue for close to home. My sense is that this reflects reality, as communities on the coast tend to be denser on the coasts and sparse in the plains, particularly the northern plains.

 

2022 Close to Home Changes

 

All of the above is a preamble to this - the changes that have been made for 2022 to Close to Home affinity assignments!

 

You can look at the 2022 specific state assignments here and see an interactive map here. (One thing the map can't do is divide between the sub-state regions we have for California, Florida, and Texas. Copy the drive document to avoid two users trying to select things at the same time)

 

 

 

 

School2022 Region Assignments2021 Region AssignmentsDifference
Florida42420
Georgia Southern33.6631.52.16
Rice33.3866666734.13333333-0.7466666667
Florida State31.531.50
USF30300
UCF30300
Miami30300
Florida Atlantic30300
FIU30300
SMU29.2916666729.291666670
Georgia Tech28.9933333322.585714296.407619048
Auburn26.8333333328.92857143-2.095238095
South Carolina26.8028571429.13116883-2.328311688
Clemson26.8028571429.13116883-2.328311688
Texas26.6666666726.666666670
Baylor26.6666666726.666666670
UNLV25.8953846223.495384622.4
Arizona State24.121.614285712.485714286
Texas Tech24.0583333323.972619050.08571428571
Fresno State23.5403846227.14038462-3.6
Louisiana23.2033333324.23636364-1.033030303
San Diego State23.12523.1250
South Alabama22.4833333324.86493506-2.381601732
Georgia State21.6619.52.16
Georgia21.6622.58571429-0.9257142857
Texas A&M20.0533333320.8-0.7466666667
Houston20.0533333320.8-0.7466666667
Troy19.3333333321.42857143-2.095238095
Notre Dame19.2566666719.81738095-0.5607142857
Maryland18.8771428621.1225974-2.245454545
West Virginia18.5821428621.2425974-2.660454545
Navy18.5771428615.72259742.854545455
USC17.9153846217.915384620
UCLA17.9153846217.915384620
Penn State17.7521428619.45214286-1.7
Oklahoma State17.2333333317.233333330
Southern Miss17.2033333320.33160173-3.128268398
Mississippi State17.2033333320.33160173-3.128268398
TCU15.9583333315.958333330
Oklahoma15.9583333315.958333330
North Texas15.9583333315.958333330
Pittsburgh15.5821428617.69714286-2.115
Temple15.5771428617.27714286-1.7
Iowa15.3771428611.486666673.89047619
Army15.21516.795-1.58
Hawaii15150
Rutgers13.65515.355-1.7
Toledo13.5914.15071429-0.5607142857
Bowling Green13.5914.15071429-0.5607142857
Oregon13.4803846213.480384620
UTSA13.3333333313.333333330
Texas State13.3333333313.333333330
Oregon State13.06513.0650
Wisconsin1211.366666670.6333333333
Appalachian State11.6678571414.79090909-3.123051948
Arkansas11.657142868.6752.982142857
Michigan11.5513.99-2.44
Eastern Michigan11.5511.965-0.415
Louisiana-Monroe10.84511.8780303-1.033030303
Louisiana Tech10.8454.4113636366.433636364
Northwestern10.7410.252380950.4876190476
Missouri10.5321428611.11666667-0.5845238095
UAB10.483333339.4285714291.054761905
Alabama10.4833333312.86493506-2.381601732
Tennessee10.467857146.53.967857143
Kentucky10.36510.92571429-0.5607142857
North Carolina10.3028571413.17662338-2.873766234
Western Michigan10.0659.5357142860.5292857143
Miami (OH)10.0653.9857142866.079285714
Cincinnati10.06510.62571429-0.5607142857
Boise State9.9553846159.9553846150
Tulane9.8710.9030303-1.033030303
LSU9.8710.9030303-1.033030303
Akron9.6256.642.985
New Mexico9.1285714299.0428571430.08571428571
Virginia8.9571428579.502597403-0.5454545455
Kansas State8.4571428575.62.857142857
Virginia Tech8.44285714310.39090909-1.948051948
Marshall8.3258.74-0.415
Ball State8.2658.825714286-0.5607142857
Wake Forest8.14285714310.09090909-1.948051948
Old Dominion8.14285714310.09090909-1.948051948
Liberty8.142857143#N/A#N/A
East Carolina8.14285714310.09090909-1.948051948
Duke8.14285714310.09090909-1.948051948
UTEP8.18.0142857140.08571428571
New Mexico State8.18.0142857140.08571428571
Northern Illinois8.048.227380952-0.1873809524
Nevada8.02038461511.62038462-3.6
Purdue7.7066666677.852380952-0.1457142857
Indiana7.7066666677.852380952-0.1457142857
Illinois7.7066666675.6666666672.04
Mississippi7.654.4113636363.238636364
Memphis7.659.111363636-1.461363636
Washington State7.567.560
Washington7.447.440
Western Kentucky7.3658.685714286-1.320714286
NC State7.3028571439.631168831-2.328311688
Coastal Carolina7.302857143#N/A#N/A
Charlotte7.3028571439.631168831-2.328311688
Syracuse7.2553.7353.52
Iowa State6.9783333336.3450.6333333333
Arizona6.64.1142857142.485714286
Ohio6.5256.94-0.415
Minnesota6.4533333335.4451.008333333
Ohio State6.2256.64-0.415
Kent State6.2256.64-0.415
Stanford6.0403846156.0403846150
San Jose State6.0403846156.0403846150
California6.0403846156.0403846150
Buffalo5.5757.275-1.7
Nebraska5.510476196.095-0.5845238095
UMass5.4155.466428571-0.05142857143
Connecticut5.4155.466428571-0.05142857143
Boston College5.4155.466428571-0.05142857143
Kansas5.390476195.975-0.5845238095
Vanderbilt5.3256.5-1.175
Middle Tennessee5.3256.5-1.175
Michigan State5.3257.35-2.025
Central Michigan5.3255.3250
Air Force4.984.993186813-0.01318681319
Tulsa4.8754.8750
Arkansas State4.2321428574.775-0.5428571429
Louisville3.843.985714286-0.1457142857
Wyoming3.8253.838186813-0.01318681319
Utah3.7153846153.728571429-0.01318681319
BYU3.7153846153.5439560440.1714285714
Colorado State3.7053.718186813-0.01318681319
Colorado3.7053.718186813-0.01318681319
Utah State2.6868131872.7-0.01318681319

 

 

 

 

 

 

School20222021Difference
Louisiana Tech10.8454.4113636366.433636364
Georgia Tech28.9933333322.585714296.407619048
Miami (OH)10.0653.9857142866.079285714
Tennessee10.467857146.53.967857143
Iowa15.3771428611.486666673.89047619
Syracuse7.2553.7353.52
Mississippi7.654.4113636363.238636364
Akron9.6256.642.985
Arkansas11.657142868.6752.982142857
Kansas State8.4571428575.62.857142857

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

School20222021Difference
Charlotte7.3028571439.631168831-2.328311688
South Alabama22.4833333324.86493506-2.381601732
Alabama10.4833333312.86493506-2.381601732
Michigan11.5513.99-2.44
West Virginia18.5821428621.2425974-2.660454545
North Carolina10.3028571413.17662338-2.873766234
Appalachian State11.6678571414.79090909-3.123051948
Southern Miss17.2033333320.33160173-3.128268398
Mississippi State17.2033333320.33160173-3.128268398
Nevada8.02038461511.62038462-3.6
Fresno State23.5403846227.14038462-3.6

 

 

 

 

 

Wrap Up

 

I asked some users to help out with this job, and special thanks need to go to @PoopyRhinoPickle @subsequent @TuscanSota @Rocketcan @tsweezy for their help and especially to @PoopyRhinoPickle as this dev diary would probably have been posted a month from now without his help compiling all of the changes.

Edited by alexfall862
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