-
Posts
576 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
32 -
Points
1,215 [ Donate ]
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Downloads
Gallery
Store
Posts posted by alexfall862
-
-
Does the malus or boost for either of these (passing and clutch) apply as a global modifier or impact specific attributes?
-
Someone is going to spreadsheet this out and sign an entire team of below average but clutch players. @tsweezy
Very interesting foils!- 2
-
2 hours ago, Bingo415 said:
GD Jacobs. Mironde is incredible.
Is this Maronde's Heisman Moment?
- 1
-
Nebraska with some weapons grade ooftonium on that one. At least it was a non-conference game.
-
Team Player ATT YDS YDS/ATT TD FUM Nebraska Richaun Alsadek 18 180 10 2 0 Nebraska Oday Rodriguez 12 7 0.58 0 1
Hmm, I wonder which one should play more.- 2
-
Not if I investigate you first.
- 2
-
Ad Application:
- Game: NCAA National Championship or Super Bowl (depending on when turnover happens)
- Company: Nacrotics Anonymous
- Sponsoring the first fumble of each game
- Script: "This turnover has been brought to you by your anonymous friends at NA. Whether it's fleeing the police across the country in a stolen Subaru or losing a championship game to the third best team in Oklahoma, turn to us after your rock bottom."
- Tagline: "Don't fumble your life away. Don't be Matt Howard."
- 1
- Game: NCAA National Championship or Super Bowl (depending on when turnover happens)
-
In
alexfall862#6505
- 1
- 1
-
What, so I can have it added to my file? I'm watching you.
Fellas, he's on to us!
- 2
-
Is there any chance we can make sure that Kansas isn't allowed into any of the cool leagues no matter what?
-
Dude, that is a huge task to get the game data together. Shoutout to @PoopyRhinoPickle and @Piercewise1 for making that happen.
- 4
-
Oh sorry, the other 20 points are the affinities. So a perfect school would get 50% of the total possible score addition from that, and then another 20% comes from having or not having affinities. Broadly speaking, the difference between a 0-12 school and a 12-0 school is about the same as 1 affinity matching.
-
Well Lubbock is pretty white and also it's hot there...
- 1
-
Hello Coaches!
Welcome to the second Dev Diary for 2022 on the new recruiting system for this coming season.
Recruiting Dev Diaries for 2022
Dev Diary 54: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Close to Home
Dev Diary 55: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Other Affinities
Dev Diary 56: Recruiting Efficiency Score
Dev Diary 57: Recruiting on the Interface
With this diary, I want to introduce the new recruiting system. The goal of overhauling the system was to take advantage of what the interface gives us in the form of new ways to connect on-field performance and recruiting while both preserving and nerfing the affinity system.
Challenges of Last Season
One of the things that was clear when reviewing the first season of recruiting was that affinities had a very strong influence on whether a team could even consider competing for a recruit. Schools could invest as little as 5 points into a recruit and get 90% of their necessary points through the affinity bonus system. In isolation, this doesn't mean too much, but the effect it had on recruiting was in shutting out competition and leading to a dice roll in player generation dictating committals before recruiting even began.
We can also take advantage of the interface, and more realistically simulate the way a player may consider a school. Beyond affinity matching having a strong hand in recruiting choices, we also saw Georgia and Nebraska bring in really strong classes despite absolutely putrid seasons. To be fair, in real life poor teams can often out recruit their relative place in the standings due to affinity with recruits, but while both teams were closing the season getting blown out, they were also signing 5* recruits and that just didn't pass the smell test.
The new recruiting system retains the points based recruiting backbone of the previous system. Each team still gets 50 Recruiting Points (now called Recruiting Time Points - think of the 50 points as an approximation of how your coaching staff divides their time among recruits) each week. (or fewer if you have an administrative penalty for bad gameplans or other site issues).
Recruits still have a threshold that ticks down over time and reacts to the number of teams recruiting them.
What has changed are two things: we've swapped out the Affinity Bonus for a Recruiting Efficiency Score and recruits now have memories.
Recruits are Now Goldfish
Before we dive into the big change, let's go over memories. One of the bigger issues that came up in feedback was the battle of trying to overcome schools who were currently inactive but had pushed the committal threshold so high that no other school could get a player to commit until the last week of the recruiting season.
Part of this was intended. Recruits should naturally want to wait to hear back form all possible options - but when looking at some of the recruiting battles, it was clear that this behavior from recruits was ultimately harmful to the fun of recruiting and not all that realistic as a recruit is unlikely to commit to a school that's ghosting them.
Recruits will now only evaluate the last ten weeks when counting the number of teams interested in them. They will still consider all Recruiting Time Points when calculating a decision, though, so a school that was active in week 1 could conceivably get a commitment without further activity provided no other school made a serious effort on that player.
Recruiting Efficiency Score
The Recruiting Efficiency Score is a modifier to team's point totals with recruits meant to be an approximation of how well your pitch is landing with a recruit. 0-8 with no affinity match with a recruit? Expect your pitch to be less effective with a recruit than a 2-6 school with 1 affinity match, or a an 8-0 juggernaut that's also close to home.
The value of the modifier in the Recruiting Efficiency Score is between -20% and 20%, meaning that the worst possible fit for a recruit is at 80% strength compared to the median school. It also means that the best possible situation has effectively 120% strength in recruiting. When pitting the best fit against the worst fit, it would be a 50% advantage for the best fit school. That's far more modest than the previous affinity system gave out.
The nuts and bolts of how the affinity score is calculated are below, but broad strokes are this: wins and losses account for 30% of the score, postseason participation of various kinds and strengths (bowl game, conference championship appearance, conference title, playoff, etc.) account of 10%, and 50% of the score is evaluated by matching affinities.
The specific weights for the current calculations of the RES are as follows:
Item Weights Previous Season Overall Record Wins over Conference Games Played 5.00% Previous Season Conference Wins over Conference Games Played 5.00% Current Season Overall Record W over Games Played 10.00% Current Season Conference W over Games Played 10.00% Coach Career Record Wins (avg wins per season over total games per season) 10.00% Affinity Match 1 25.00% Affinity Match 2 25.00% Postseason Games (Full Credit for Bowl Game Participation, Bowl Outcome has No Weight) 5.00% Conference Championship (Full Credit for Title, Half Credit for Participation) 5.00% Rivalry Trophies Held / Other Flavors (WIP, may be added for 2023) 0.00% Examples
This is all a little heady, so let me give some example situations.
Tulsa had a perfect season last year. They maxed out every category in the RES that a school can control. Their score for the year was 100%.
If they're recruiting a player they have 1 affinity match for, their RES goes to 110%, and 120% if they match both affinities.
Because this is a modifier on the Recruiting Time Points, Tulsa's RES for a 1 affinity match recruit would be:
Week 1: (5 RTP Points in Week 1) * RES of 110% = 5.5 Points logged into the recruit in week 1.
Let's say Tulsa loses their opener. That would impact their score (0/0 games played is full credit in the RES, but once a game is played it references that outcome. 0/0=1 is meant to be an approximation of hope springing eternal in the offseason.) This would drop their baseline RES score from 100% to 94.76%. The affinity bonus still applies, so in week 2 their RES would be 104.76%.
Week 2: (5 RTP Points in Week 1 + 5 RTP Points in Week 2) * RES of 104.76% = 10.476 Points logged into the recruit week 2.
Oh no, they also lose their home conference opener as well! But, to make up for that, they're spending 10 RTP points this week on the recruit instead of 5. Their baseline RES drops to 89.56% because they're now getting 0 credit for current season conference record.
Week 3: (5 RTP Points in Week 1 + 5 RTP Points in Week 2 + 10 RTP Points in Week 3) * RES of 99.56% = 19.912 Points logged into the recruit week 2.
Competition
Let's now say that Texas Tech has an interested in that same player and also has an affinity match, but where Tulsa had the best season, Texas Tech has the worst. For comparison of the system, let's say they start off white hot and win their first game and conference opener.
Their initial RES is 90% and they have 1 affinity match for an RES with this recruit of 100%. Let's say they win a noncon week 1 and a conference game week 2 and go into week 3 sensing a battle with Tulsa and also put in 10 puts in week 3. This is how it would break down:
Week 1: (5 RTP Points in Week 1) * RES of 100% = 5 Points logged into the recruit in week 1.
Week 2: (5 RTP Points in Week 1 + 5 RTP Points in Week 2) * RES of 100.29% = 10.0029 Points logged into the recruit week 2.
Week 3: (5 RTP Points in Week 1 + 5 RTP Points in Week 2 + 10 RTP Points in Week 3) * RES of 100.53% = 20.106 Points logged into the recruit week 2.
So we can see that Texas Tech started the season at a 10% disadvantage, but in just 3 weeks were able to shorten the gap in RES score, by virtue
In a third example, let's say Texas Tech has all the plans in the world to contest this recruit, but instead of opening white hot, they fall flat on their face while Tulsa continues on pace.
Tulsa by Week 3: Baseline RES of 100% + 10% Affinity Bonus = 110% * 20 = 22 points logged.
Tech by Week 3: Baseline RES of 80% + 10% Affinity Bonus = 90% * 20 = 18 points logged.
In a fourth example, let's say everything about the previous example stays the same, except Tulsa has no affinity match with this particular recruit.
Tulsa by Week 3: Baseline RES of 100% + 10% Affinity Bonus = 100% * 20 = 20 points logged.
Tech by Week 3: Baseline RES of 80% + 10% Affinity Bonus = 90% * 20 = 18 points logged.
Takeaways
The example above uses the best and worst team possible by on-field performance. Tulsa currently has the highest possible score, and Texas Tech has the lowest possible score. For most teams, their baseline RES scores are going to revolve around 90-95% throughout the season. While that's not nothing, it isn't a huge difference in impact on the total race for a recruit.
However, cumulatively, a bad season is about a 10-15% difference in RES and it takes roughly 1 affinity match to counteract that deficit. This has the intended goal of making teams that should have no business in real life of competing for recruits against powerhouse programs think twice before chasing after 5* players - yet at the same time doesn't completely eliminate the possibility they could get one.
Conference championships and bowl games last until the next round of games, so they can act as a buoy for teams that have a bad follow-up year. This advantage doesn't seem unrealistic, as the 'glow' doesn't come off a team in less than a year.
The longer the sim goes, the more stable a coaching record value is going to be. This should act as a stabilizing force for many programs with long-tenured programs, and will also protect coaches who take over struggling teams from being tied behind the recruiting anchor of their new team's previous season record. A 9-3 good coach taking over a 3-9 program equals out to the same credit as a 6-6 team with a 6-6 coach.
2021 End of Year Scores
The RES score is supposed to be an evolving number, but to give you some idea of of the effect it will have by year's end, here's what last year's end of season RES would have looked like:
Without the bump from the RES calculator treating the beginning of the season as a 'clean slate', Texas Tech sits at 80% along with UTEP.
Team SUM of Recruiting Efficiency Score Tulsa 100.00% Florida State 99.31% Kentucky 99.27% Wisconsin 98.53% Texas State 98.43% Ohio 97.02% North Texas 97.02% Boston College 96.43% Old Dominion 95.59% Alabama 95.59% Baylor 95.46% San Diego State 95.30% Purdue 95.09% Illinois 95.09% Texas 95.04% Air Force 94.80% Tennessee 94.71% TAMU 94.71% Oregon 94.67% Arizona 94.26% Florida Atlantic 93.87% Akron 93.87% Appalachian State 93.52% California 93.28% Virginia 93.24% Temple 93.24% UAB 93.02% Tulane 92.99% Troy 92.99% Missouri 92.99% Mississippi State 92.99% Marshall 92.99% Duke 92.99% Cincinnati 92.99% TCU 92.44% Kansas State 92.44% Colorado 92.44% Western Michigan 92.14% UNLV 92.14% Central Michigan 92.14% Stanford 91.66% Oregon State 91.66% Ohio State 91.66% Michigan State 91.66% Wyoming 91.30% Utah State 91.30% Rice 91.30% New Mexico 91.30% Bowling Green 91.30% Arkansas State 91.30% NC State 91.27% Georgia State 91.27% Georgia Tech 90.45% UTSA 90.42% SMU 90.42% Pittsburgh 90.42% Louisiana Tech 90.42% Fresno State 90.42% Auburn 90.42% UCLA 89.97% Oklahoma State 89.97% Rutgers 89.71% Coastal Carolina 89.58% Penn State 89.19% Minnesota 89.19% Maryland 89.19% Ball State 89.12% East Carolina 88.96% Nevada 88.08% Navy 88.08% Lousiville 88.08% Florida International 88.08% Florida 88.08% USC 87.69% Kansas 87.69% Iowa State 87.69% Arizona State 87.69% Northern Illinois 87.21% North Carolina 87.21% Middle Tennessee 87.21% Kent State 87.21% Eastern Michigan 87.21% Colorado State 87.21% Birginia Tech 87.21% Arkansas 87.21% BYU 86.92% Michigan 86.92% West Virginia 86.78% Northwestern 86.78% UCF 86.33% South Carolina 86.33% Miami (OH) 86.33% Georgia Southern 86.33% Ole Miss 86.29% Louisiana 86.29% Iowa 86.14% Umass 86.08% San Jose State 85.42% Memphis 85.42% Buffalo 85.38% Washington 85.22% Oklahoma 85.22% Indiana 85.22% Notre Dame 84.58% Army 84.58% Western Kentucky 84.50% Wake Forest 84.50% USF 84.50% Southern Miss 84.50% South Alabama 84.50% Miami (FL) 84.50% Clemson 84.50% Washington State 84.31% UConn 83.67% New Mexico State 83.67% LSU 83.63% Nebraska 83.39% Liberty 82.75% Toledo 82.71% Syracuse 82.71% Louisiana-Monroe 82.71% Houston 82.71% Hawaii 82.71% Charlotte 82.71% Boise State 82.71% Utah 82.61% Vanderbilt 81.79% Georgia 81.79% UTEP 80.00% Texas Tech 80.00% Here's that distribution as a graph
and the quartile measurements - lower scores tend to be lower than the high scores are high, meaning that having a bad season is going to separate you from the meh teams more than than a meh season is going to separate you from the good teams. Again, this is the intended outcome. That's not to say teams that perform poorly can't recruit good players, they'll just need to be more mindful of affinity matches and spend more points per recruit.
Min 80.00% 2nd Quartile 85.58% 3rd Quartile 89.19% 4th Quartile 92.99% Max 100.00% This is a WIP
This project is a WIP. Other derivations of this general idea are also possible.
Testing on this concept has been slow, because the number crunching is just a little too much for a google sheet to handle, and I'm sure we'll learn things when we do a test run off of the interface. As stated above, the goal here is to take advantage of what the interface gives us in the form of new ways to connect on-field performance and recruiting while both preserving and nerfing the affinity system.
I could foresee the overal span of effect changing from the 80%-120% to 70%-130% or 90%-110% if coaches feel on-field performance has too dynamic an effect or not dynamic enough of an effect.
Wrap Up
Unlike the affinity refresh project, this is more of a single person project - so I'll take credit for whether this sinks or swims. I would like to shout out @TuscanSota though for getting the interface closer and closer to up and running and for talking me through what he can do the facilitate this idea. As I mentioned above, this is a WIP, but thanks to @TuscanSota, the bones of this project are ready to go in the interface.
Like everything else, I welcome your input and these diaries are an effort to be as transparent as possible about the way recruiting works, where my minds going as far as these projects, and I look forward to a test run in the near future. The next dev diary in this quartet will be written and released shortly as a preamble to the first test run of this recruiting system.
- 8
- 1
-
Hello Coaches!
Welcome to the second Dev Diary for 2022 on the new recruiting system for this coming season.
Recruiting Dev Diaries for 2022
Dev Diary 54: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Close to Home
Dev Diary 55: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Other Affinities
Dev Diary 56: Recruiting Efficiency Score
Dev Diary 57: Recruiting on the Interface
With this diary, I want to go over the cleaning run on affinities for the next season. The goal for this offseason was to look at all affinity assignments and make sure teams were getting bonuses that made sense and that the system overall was reflecting something close to reality. Specifically with the non-close to home affinities, the goal was to find a way to tie the affinity assignment into objective measurements as much as possible.
In some ways, the affinities aren't strictly objective qualities, but we made an effort as a working crew to find public reference points we can point coaches to, instead of 'well it just feels right'.
Academics
Academics is now tied to the 2022 US News Top 20.
Additions Removals Florida Georgia Service
No changes were made to Service, as those are tied to the Service Academies, Army, Navy, and Air Force [iSPOILER]...and soon to be Space Force? [/iSPOILER]
Religion
No changes were made to Religion, as those are the 11 schools aligned with a specific religious institution:
Baylor (Baptist General Convention)
Boston College (Jesuit)
BYU (Mormon)
Duke (United Methodist Church)
Liberty (Jerry Falwell)
[iSPOILER]Nebraska (Corn)[/iSPOILER]
Notre Dame (Catholic)
SMU (United Methodist Church)
Syracuse (Nonsectarian, formerly United Methodist Church)
TCU (Disciples of Christ)
Tulsa (Presbyterian Church)
Wake Forest (Nonsectarian, formerly Baptist)
Large Crowds
Large Crowds was made to include schools with attendance capacity above 70,000 fans. 3 schools were removed. None added.
Additions Removals N/A Missouri (61,620) SDSU (35,000) UAB (47,100) Small School
Small schools were pinned to enrollment data from US News. 7 schools were added, and 4 were removed.
Additions Removals Akron App State CMU Illinois EMU Miami (OH) Hawaii New Mexico NM State NIU Northwestern Syracuse Toledo Frontrunner
Frontrunner was changed from the somewhat unknowable measure of team overall from before any games were played to a list of championship teams. These are the schools who won their conference championship and/or made the playoff. By changing this definition, it is also the first affinity in the sim tied directly to on the field results! 8 teams were added, 15 were removed.
Additions Removals Baylor Alabama North Texas Arizona Ohio Arizona St San Diego St CMU Oregon Georgia Tech Texas St LSU Boston College Michigan St Purdue Notre Dame Ohio St Oklahoma Oklahoma St Oregon St TCU Wake Forest Washington Climate
Climate has been removed from affinities, because after review, it seemed like assignment was completely arbitrary and since we couldn't tie it to a specific reference point, it was therefore also unfair. 17 schools were removed, 5 of which had no other affinity.
Removals Arizona* Arizona St* Cal Clemson Coastal Carolina FIU* Florida Hawaii Miami (FL) SDSU South Carolina Stanford Tennessee UCF* UCLA USC USF* *No other affinity
Current Affinity Assignments
See this thread for current affinity assignments.
Here are the numer of affinities by school:
School SUM of Total Affinities Notre Dame 4 Boston College 4 Wisconsin 3 Wake Forest 3 Tulsa 3 Duke 3 Baylor 3 Vanderbilt 2 USC 2 UCLA 2 Tulane 2 Texas 2 TCU 2 Syracuse 2 Stanford 2 SMU 2 Rice 2 Northwestern 2 Navy 2 Michigan 2 Illinois 2 Florida State 2 Florida 2 Army 2 Air Force 2 Wyoming 1 Washington 1 Virginia 1 UAB 1 Troy 1 Toledo 1 Texas State 1 Texas A&M 1 Tennessee 1 Southern Miss 1 South Carolina 1 South Alabama 1 San Diego State 1 Purdue 1 Penn State 1 Oregon 1 Oklahoma 1 Ohio State 1 Ohio 1 Northern Illinois 1 North Texas 1 North Carolina 1 New Mexico State 1 Nebraska 1 Michigan State 1 Miami 1 Marshall 1 LSU 1 Louisiana-Monroe 1 Louisiana Tech 1 Louisiana 1 Liberty 1 Kentucky 1 Iowa 1 Hawaii 1 Georgia Tech 1 Georgia 1 Eastern Michigan 1 Coastal Carolina 1 Clemson 1 Central Michigan 1 California 1 BYU 1 Bowling Green 1 Auburn 1 Arkansas State 1 Arkansas 1 Alabama 1 Akron 1 Western Michigan 0 Western Kentucky 0 West Virginia 0 Washington State 0 Virginia Tech 0 UTSA 0 UTEP 0 Utah State 0 Utah 0 USF 0 UNLV 0 UMass 0 UCF 0 Texas Tech 0 Temple 0 San Jose State 0 Rutgers 0 Pittsburgh 0 Oregon State 0 Old Dominion 0 Oklahoma State 0 New Mexico 0 Nevada 0 NC State 0 Missouri 0 Mississippi State 0 Mississippi 0 Minnesota 0 Middle Tennessee 0 Miami (OH) 0 Memphis 0 Maryland 0 Louisville 0 Kent State 0 Kansas State 0 Kansas 0 Iowa State 0 Indiana 0 Houston 0 Georgia State 0 Georgia Southern 0 Fresno State 0 Florida Atlantic 0 FIU 0 East Carolina 0 Connecticut 0 Colorado State 0 Colorado 0 Cincinnati 0 Charlotte 0 Buffalo 0 Boise State 0 Ball State 0 Arizona State 0 Arizona 0 Appalachian State 0 Future Affinity Plans and Ideas
For those 5 schools schools who lost out on their affinity, and for any other coaches that find themselves either out of affinities or are down one - there's no need to fret quite yet! Our next dev diary will go into the ways that affinities are being reworked in the actual recruiting process. You'll have to stay tuned to hear the specifics, but in general expect affinities to have ~5-10% boost to recruits as opposed to the ~900% boost possible when gaming the previous system in the most efficient way possible.
As a team, we also floated some new affinity ideas, but with recruiting moving entirely into the interface and a pretty substantial recruiting process overhaul, we've left the affinity additions out of this next recruiting cycle.
Here are some of the ideas floated out by team members in the past, that are under consideration:
Party School
Schools were the students party pretty hard. Issue with adding is that's arguably any school.
Urban/Rural Schools
Schools located in urban areas could get a boost with kids who want to live the city life, rural school the opposite. Issue with adding is having to find the delineation between urban and rural - especially with so many schools being in bedroom communities around larger metro areas. Is Northwestern urban because Chicago or rural because Evanstown is a "small town"? Probably not, because it's pretty clearly part of the metropolitan area. What about Ames and Des Moines or Bloomington and Indianapolis?
Large School
This is the corollary to the small school affinity already listed. Issue with adding is whether this really does anything different than the large crowds affinity.
With the move into the interface, there's also long-term potential to tie affinities into on-field performance in a more direct manner. Some of the affinities suggested that fall into that category are:
Play Style
Players could get an affinity match with schools who have particular schemes assigned. Issue here is how to measure that, and what happens to teams that change scheme - is it fair to penalize a team for switching scheme? What even defines a scheme?
NIL Opportunities
Players could get an affinity match with schools who have large endowments and high enrollments. Issue with adding is similar to a Large School affinity. Does it really add anything different or just reinforce that affinity?
Playing Time
Certain players look for where they will start immediately. Issue with adding is how that would be measured without becoming a particularly hairy evaluation each recruiting week.
Play with a Legendary (QB/RB/WR/TE/OL/DL/LB/CB/S/K/P/Coach)
Players with this type of affinity want to commit to a school where a particular position player or coach is at - and they want to learn or be in the same position group room as the best of the best. Issue here is how discerning how it's different from the frontrunner affinity, and it also has the same challenge as the playing time affinity. Evaluating anything over 130 rosters could become hairy very quickly.
Feel free to suggest your own affinity ideas here as we will use the 2022 season to start planning recruiting changes in 2023.
Wrap Up
I asked some users to help out with this job, and special thanks need to go to @PoopyRhinoPickle @subsequent @TuscanSota @Rocketcan @tsweezy for their help and especially to @PoopyRhinoPickle as this dev diary would probably have been posted a month from now without his help compiling all of the changes.
- 4
- 2
-
Hello Coaches!
Welcome to the first Dev Diary for 2022 on the new recruiting system for this coming season.
Recruiting Dev Diaries for 2022
Dev Diary 54: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Close to Home
Dev Diary 55: Recruiting Affinities Refresh | Other Affinities
Dev Diary 56: Recruiting Efficiency Score
Dev Diary 57: Recruiting on the Interface
With this diary, I want to take a moment to talk about the changes to close to home assignment for the next season. The goal for this offseason was to look at all affinity assignments and make sure teams were getting bonuses that made sense and that the system overall was reflecting something close to reality. This Dev Diary is for the Close to Home affinity, which affects around 60% of all recruits in a given class.
Close to Home Score
In order to compare schools' situations as close to objectively as possible, I developed a score to reflect the strength of a team's close to home assignments. There's a little bit of math behind it, but the gist of the score is that the higher the number, the stronger the close to home advantage that team should have.
The nitty gritty of the score is this: First, the source of the score is the 2021 recruiting class. Each recruiting region was scored by the number of recruits in that region (i.e. a region with 25 recruits would have a score of 25).
That number was then divided by the number of schools who were booked to receive a close to home bonus for that region. (i.e. if a region had 25 recruits and 4 schools assigned, the score would be 6.25)
Each school in the given region scores that they qualify for. In effect, this score should represent the number of potentially uncontested recruits for a school if all schools with close to home for that region did not compete against each other.
A score of 30 for a school like UCF means that they could theoretically get a full class and change worth of players recruited with a close to home bonus and not have them contested by other schools. A school like Utah St with a score of 2.6 means that even if everything breaks right and other schools in their close to home orbit avoid competing with them for recruits, they should only expect to have 2 or 3 recruits with the close to home bonus in their class.
In practice, not all of the players eligible for a school's close to home bonus will be worth signing, and schools are absolutely going to compete for recruits against each other, so the numbers aren't 1:1 to an expected outcome - but it gives both a point of comparison for affinity assignments and some broad context for the schools themselves even if it's not an exact match.
When comparing schools, first let's look at total number of players each school could recruit with a close to home bonus. This is the total number of players in CtH states for schools, multiplied by 60% (the percentage of recruits generated with close to home affinity):
School Average of Likely Recruits with CtH Matched Rice 307.2 SMU 261 South Carolina 249.6 Clemson 249.6 Texas 240 Florida 240 Baylor 240 Louisiana 225 Notre Dame 223.8 Auburn 222 West Virginia 221.4 Georgia Southern 216 Florida State 216 Texas A&M 187.2 Houston 187.2 Pittsburgh 182.4 USF 180 UCF 180 Miami 180 Florida Atlantic 180 FIU 180 Georgia Tech 177.6 Georgia 177.6 Texas Tech 174.6 Fresno State 173.4 Toledo 172.8 Bowling Green 172.8 Southern Miss 171 Mississippi State 171 South Alabama 163.8 Maryland 160.8 Michigan 158.4 Georgia State 156 Oklahoma State 151.2 San Diego State 150 Kentucky 148.8 UNLV 148.2 Cincinnati 146.4 Eastern Michigan 142.2 TCU 141 Oklahoma 141 North Texas 141 Appalachian State 139.2 Penn State 136.8 North Carolina 132.6 Ball State 130.2 Arizona State 126.6 Troy 126 UTSA 120 Texas State 120 Temple 119.4 Marshall 118.2 Navy 117.6 Virginia Tech 113.4 Louisiana-Monroe 112.8 Army 112.2 Wake Forest 111 Old Dominion 111 East Carolina 111 Duke 111 USC 110.4 UCLA 110.4 Tulane 105 Rutgers 105 LSU 105 Alabama 103.8 Ohio 102 Northwestern 100.8 Ohio State 99.6 Kent State 99.6 Akron 99.6 NC State 93.6 Charlotte 93.6 Western Michigan 89.4 Nevada 88.2 Oregon 87.6 Missouri 87 Northern Illinois 84.6 Iowa 84 Wisconsin 83.4 Oregon State 82.2 Purdue 81.6 Indiana 81.6 Virginia 81 Western Kentucky 75 Memphis 73.8 UAB 66 Boise State 63 Arkansas 61.8 Michigan State 58.8 Buffalo 58.2 Illinois 51 Stanford 50.4 San Jose State 50.4 California 50.4 Miami (OH) 46.8 Louisville 46.8 Mississippi 45.6 Louisiana Tech 45.6 Vanderbilt 44.4 Tennessee 44.4 Middle Tennessee 44.4 Central Michigan 42.6 Air Force 42.6 New Mexico 40.8 Nebraska 40.8 Kansas 40.2 Tulsa 39 Washington State 37.8 Washington 37.2 Kansas State 37.2 Iowa State 37.2 Utah 34.2 UTEP 33.6 UMass 33.6 New Mexico State 33.6 Connecticut 33.6 Boston College 33.6 Wyoming 33 BYU 33 Colorado State 32.4 Colorado 32.4 Arkansas State 30.6 Minnesota 30 Utah State 27 Syracuse 25.2 Arizona 21.6 Hawaii 15 This is certainly one measure to see which schools have an advantage with close to home as an affinity, but one thing it doesn't capture is the degree to which multiple teams are competing for the same resources. After all, is Hawaii really the worst place to try and recruit players who want to stay close to home? Is West Virginia really that strongly positioned?
So instead of looking at total recruits, let's use the Close to Home Score.
School 2021 Class CtH Score Florida 42 Georgia Southern 33.66 Rice 33.38666667 Florida State 31.5 USF 30 UCF 30 Miami 30 Florida Atlantic 30 FIU 30 SMU 29.29166667 Georgia Tech 28.99333333 Auburn 26.83333333 South Carolina 26.80285714 Clemson 26.80285714 Texas 26.66666667 Baylor 26.66666667 UNLV 25.89538462 Arizona State 24.1 Texas Tech 24.05833333 Fresno State 23.54038462 Louisiana 23.20333333 San Diego State 23.125 South Alabama 22.48333333 Georgia State 21.66 Georgia 21.66 Texas A&M 20.05333333 Houston 20.05333333 Troy 19.33333333 Notre Dame 19.25666667 Maryland 18.87714286 West Virginia 18.58214286 Navy 18.57714286 USC 17.91538462 UCLA 17.91538462 Penn State 17.75214286 Oklahoma State 17.23333333 Southern Miss 17.20333333 Mississippi State 17.20333333 TCU 15.95833333 Oklahoma 15.95833333 North Texas 15.95833333 Pittsburgh 15.58214286 Temple 15.57714286 Iowa 15.37714286 Army 15.215 Hawaii 15 Rutgers 13.655 Toledo 13.59 Bowling Green 13.59 Oregon 13.48038462 UTSA 13.33333333 Texas State 13.33333333 Oregon State 13.065 Wisconsin 12 Appalachian State 11.66785714 Arkansas 11.65714286 Michigan 11.55 Eastern Michigan 11.55 Louisiana-Monroe 10.845 Louisiana Tech 10.845 Northwestern 10.74 Missouri 10.53214286 UAB 10.48333333 Alabama 10.48333333 Tennessee 10.46785714 Kentucky 10.365 North Carolina 10.30285714 Western Michigan 10.065 Miami (OH) 10.065 Cincinnati 10.065 Boise State 9.955384615 Tulane 9.87 LSU 9.87 Akron 9.625 New Mexico 9.128571429 Virginia 8.957142857 Kansas State 8.457142857 Virginia Tech 8.442857143 Marshall 8.325 Ball State 8.265 Wake Forest 8.142857143 Old Dominion 8.142857143 Liberty 8.142857143 East Carolina 8.142857143 Duke 8.142857143 UTEP 8.1 New Mexico State 8.1 Northern Illinois 8.04 Nevada 8.020384615 Purdue 7.706666667 Indiana 7.706666667 Illinois 7.706666667 Mississippi 7.65 Memphis 7.65 Washington State 7.56 Washington 7.44 Western Kentucky 7.365 NC State 7.302857143 Coastal Carolina 7.302857143 Charlotte 7.302857143 Syracuse 7.255 Iowa State 6.978333333 Arizona 6.6 Ohio 6.525 Minnesota 6.453333333 Ohio State 6.225 Kent State 6.225 Stanford 6.040384615 San Jose State 6.040384615 California 6.040384615 Buffalo 5.575 Nebraska 5.51047619 UMass 5.415 Connecticut 5.415 Boston College 5.415 Kansas 5.39047619 Vanderbilt 5.325 Middle Tennessee 5.325 Michigan State 5.325 Central Michigan 5.325 Air Force 4.98 Tulsa 4.875 Arkansas State 4.232142857 Louisville 3.84 Wyoming 3.825 Utah 3.715384615 BYU 3.715384615 Colorado State 3.705 Colorado 3.705 Utah State 2.686813187 This score does a good job of reflecting close to home advantages both in the sim and in real life. You can see all the rocky mountain schools tearing each other apart at the bottom due both to having few recruits in their regions, but also due to so many schools being in the same region. Instead of being ranked as the weakest school for close to home advantages, Hawaii is now in the upper middle of the rankings. This makes some sense, because while they may only have 25 recruits, there's no other competition that can argue a recruit could stay close to home without playing for Hawaii.
We've spent some considerable time talking about the Close to Home Score, and I want to emphasize that this isn't a measure we tried to fit our schools to, but a score that lets use know whether our existing assignments pass the 'smell test'. The actual work of assignment and reassignment of close to home regions was done with quite a bit of hand-checking of regions and whether a school would plausibly be able to make the argument to a recruit that they'd be able to stay closer to home than their other options.
In general, as far as straight geography, schools in the middle of the country have a geographically larger orbit in close to home regions and the coasts have a much tighter window to argue for close to home. My sense is that this reflects reality, as communities on the coast tend to be denser on the coasts and sparse in the plains, particularly the northern plains.
2022 Close to Home Changes
All of the above is a preamble to this - the changes that have been made for 2022 to Close to Home affinity assignments!
You can look at the 2022 specific state assignments here and see an interactive map here. (One thing the map can't do is divide between the sub-state regions we have for California, Florida, and Texas. Copy the drive document to avoid two users trying to select things at the same time)
School 2022 Region Assignments 2021 Region Assignments Difference Florida 42 42 0 Georgia Southern 33.66 31.5 2.16 Rice 33.38666667 34.13333333 -0.7466666667 Florida State 31.5 31.5 0 USF 30 30 0 UCF 30 30 0 Miami 30 30 0 Florida Atlantic 30 30 0 FIU 30 30 0 SMU 29.29166667 29.29166667 0 Georgia Tech 28.99333333 22.58571429 6.407619048 Auburn 26.83333333 28.92857143 -2.095238095 South Carolina 26.80285714 29.13116883 -2.328311688 Clemson 26.80285714 29.13116883 -2.328311688 Texas 26.66666667 26.66666667 0 Baylor 26.66666667 26.66666667 0 UNLV 25.89538462 23.49538462 2.4 Arizona State 24.1 21.61428571 2.485714286 Texas Tech 24.05833333 23.97261905 0.08571428571 Fresno State 23.54038462 27.14038462 -3.6 Louisiana 23.20333333 24.23636364 -1.033030303 San Diego State 23.125 23.125 0 South Alabama 22.48333333 24.86493506 -2.381601732 Georgia State 21.66 19.5 2.16 Georgia 21.66 22.58571429 -0.9257142857 Texas A&M 20.05333333 20.8 -0.7466666667 Houston 20.05333333 20.8 -0.7466666667 Troy 19.33333333 21.42857143 -2.095238095 Notre Dame 19.25666667 19.81738095 -0.5607142857 Maryland 18.87714286 21.1225974 -2.245454545 West Virginia 18.58214286 21.2425974 -2.660454545 Navy 18.57714286 15.7225974 2.854545455 USC 17.91538462 17.91538462 0 UCLA 17.91538462 17.91538462 0 Penn State 17.75214286 19.45214286 -1.7 Oklahoma State 17.23333333 17.23333333 0 Southern Miss 17.20333333 20.33160173 -3.128268398 Mississippi State 17.20333333 20.33160173 -3.128268398 TCU 15.95833333 15.95833333 0 Oklahoma 15.95833333 15.95833333 0 North Texas 15.95833333 15.95833333 0 Pittsburgh 15.58214286 17.69714286 -2.115 Temple 15.57714286 17.27714286 -1.7 Iowa 15.37714286 11.48666667 3.89047619 Army 15.215 16.795 -1.58 Hawaii 15 15 0 Rutgers 13.655 15.355 -1.7 Toledo 13.59 14.15071429 -0.5607142857 Bowling Green 13.59 14.15071429 -0.5607142857 Oregon 13.48038462 13.48038462 0 UTSA 13.33333333 13.33333333 0 Texas State 13.33333333 13.33333333 0 Oregon State 13.065 13.065 0 Wisconsin 12 11.36666667 0.6333333333 Appalachian State 11.66785714 14.79090909 -3.123051948 Arkansas 11.65714286 8.675 2.982142857 Michigan 11.55 13.99 -2.44 Eastern Michigan 11.55 11.965 -0.415 Louisiana-Monroe 10.845 11.8780303 -1.033030303 Louisiana Tech 10.845 4.411363636 6.433636364 Northwestern 10.74 10.25238095 0.4876190476 Missouri 10.53214286 11.11666667 -0.5845238095 UAB 10.48333333 9.428571429 1.054761905 Alabama 10.48333333 12.86493506 -2.381601732 Tennessee 10.46785714 6.5 3.967857143 Kentucky 10.365 10.92571429 -0.5607142857 North Carolina 10.30285714 13.17662338 -2.873766234 Western Michigan 10.065 9.535714286 0.5292857143 Miami (OH) 10.065 3.985714286 6.079285714 Cincinnati 10.065 10.62571429 -0.5607142857 Boise State 9.955384615 9.955384615 0 Tulane 9.87 10.9030303 -1.033030303 LSU 9.87 10.9030303 -1.033030303 Akron 9.625 6.64 2.985 New Mexico 9.128571429 9.042857143 0.08571428571 Virginia 8.957142857 9.502597403 -0.5454545455 Kansas State 8.457142857 5.6 2.857142857 Virginia Tech 8.442857143 10.39090909 -1.948051948 Marshall 8.325 8.74 -0.415 Ball State 8.265 8.825714286 -0.5607142857 Wake Forest 8.142857143 10.09090909 -1.948051948 Old Dominion 8.142857143 10.09090909 -1.948051948 Liberty 8.142857143 #N/A #N/A East Carolina 8.142857143 10.09090909 -1.948051948 Duke 8.142857143 10.09090909 -1.948051948 UTEP 8.1 8.014285714 0.08571428571 New Mexico State 8.1 8.014285714 0.08571428571 Northern Illinois 8.04 8.227380952 -0.1873809524 Nevada 8.020384615 11.62038462 -3.6 Purdue 7.706666667 7.852380952 -0.1457142857 Indiana 7.706666667 7.852380952 -0.1457142857 Illinois 7.706666667 5.666666667 2.04 Mississippi 7.65 4.411363636 3.238636364 Memphis 7.65 9.111363636 -1.461363636 Washington State 7.56 7.56 0 Washington 7.44 7.44 0 Western Kentucky 7.365 8.685714286 -1.320714286 NC State 7.302857143 9.631168831 -2.328311688 Coastal Carolina 7.302857143 #N/A #N/A Charlotte 7.302857143 9.631168831 -2.328311688 Syracuse 7.255 3.735 3.52 Iowa State 6.978333333 6.345 0.6333333333 Arizona 6.6 4.114285714 2.485714286 Ohio 6.525 6.94 -0.415 Minnesota 6.453333333 5.445 1.008333333 Ohio State 6.225 6.64 -0.415 Kent State 6.225 6.64 -0.415 Stanford 6.040384615 6.040384615 0 San Jose State 6.040384615 6.040384615 0 California 6.040384615 6.040384615 0 Buffalo 5.575 7.275 -1.7 Nebraska 5.51047619 6.095 -0.5845238095 UMass 5.415 5.466428571 -0.05142857143 Connecticut 5.415 5.466428571 -0.05142857143 Boston College 5.415 5.466428571 -0.05142857143 Kansas 5.39047619 5.975 -0.5845238095 Vanderbilt 5.325 6.5 -1.175 Middle Tennessee 5.325 6.5 -1.175 Michigan State 5.325 7.35 -2.025 Central Michigan 5.325 5.325 0 Air Force 4.98 4.993186813 -0.01318681319 Tulsa 4.875 4.875 0 Arkansas State 4.232142857 4.775 -0.5428571429 Louisville 3.84 3.985714286 -0.1457142857 Wyoming 3.825 3.838186813 -0.01318681319 Utah 3.715384615 3.728571429 -0.01318681319 BYU 3.715384615 3.543956044 0.1714285714 Colorado State 3.705 3.718186813 -0.01318681319 Colorado 3.705 3.718186813 -0.01318681319 Utah State 2.686813187 2.7 -0.01318681319 School 2022 2021 Difference Louisiana Tech 10.845 4.411363636 6.433636364 Georgia Tech 28.99333333 22.58571429 6.407619048 Miami (OH) 10.065 3.985714286 6.079285714 Tennessee 10.46785714 6.5 3.967857143 Iowa 15.37714286 11.48666667 3.89047619 Syracuse 7.255 3.735 3.52 Mississippi 7.65 4.411363636 3.238636364 Akron 9.625 6.64 2.985 Arkansas 11.65714286 8.675 2.982142857 Kansas State 8.457142857 5.6 2.857142857 School 2022 2021 Difference Charlotte 7.302857143 9.631168831 -2.328311688 South Alabama 22.48333333 24.86493506 -2.381601732 Alabama 10.48333333 12.86493506 -2.381601732 Michigan 11.55 13.99 -2.44 West Virginia 18.58214286 21.2425974 -2.660454545 North Carolina 10.30285714 13.17662338 -2.873766234 Appalachian State 11.66785714 14.79090909 -3.123051948 Southern Miss 17.20333333 20.33160173 -3.128268398 Mississippi State 17.20333333 20.33160173 -3.128268398 Nevada 8.020384615 11.62038462 -3.6 Fresno State 23.54038462 27.14038462 -3.6 Wrap Up
I asked some users to help out with this job, and special thanks need to go to @PoopyRhinoPickle @subsequent @TuscanSota @Rocketcan @tsweezy for their help and especially to @PoopyRhinoPickle as this dev diary would probably have been posted a month from now without his help compiling all of the changes.
- 2
- 1
-
"You can match their contract exactly, or create your own contract - as long as it meets or exceeds the previous offer's Value"
Ah dang, no poison pills?
- 1
-
Nebraska
alexfall862#6505
- 1
-
Nebraska
alexfall862#6505
- 1
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Hello Coaches!
A Dev Diary I'm sure you're all interested in! It's time to talk 'croots! General overview of recruiting can be found here: https://www.simfba.com/index.php?threads/recruiting-tutorial.2353/
Nuts and Bolts
Recruiting will be a weekly activity, with actions taking place whenever you'd like during the week, but progressions occurring Tuesday nights for a Wednesday to Wednesday recruiting week.
The recruiting season will last 20 weeks. The first week of recruiting will take place from the Wednesday prior to Week 1 to the Wednesday just prior to Week 2. This means that the recruiting season should wrap up Wednesday following the last bowl games.
Recruiting is done by assigning recruiting 'points' out of your weekly recruiting budget to a player. When a player has collected enough points, they will pass a threshold and make a 'commitment decision' to eligible schools.
In order to be an 'eligible school' when the commitment is assessed, you must have a standing scholarship offer to the player and be in their leading schools list.
The purpose of this dev diary is to dive into the commitment decision and how the leading schools list in generated. Tutorial about the user-side of recruiting is here:
Leading Schools
The leading schools function lists the recruiting points leader and schools within striking distance of the leading school. This math is set at 50% of the leader's amount of points. Towards the time players will start making recruiting decisions, being listed here means that you are (roughly) within a week's point of becoming the points leader.
When a commitment decision is calculated, the initial list of schools eligible to land the recruit are generated from the leading school, then any schools without a scholarship offer are removed. This means that you can be listed in leading schools and have 0% chance to land a player if you didn't offer them, but also means that you can offer a player and spend points on them and also have 0% chance to land them because you're not in their leading schools list. This is meant to be analogous to real-life recruits' Top X lists.
Commitment Decision
A player will make a decision to commit to a school when they have passed a certain threshold of total points. That threshold is not static throughout the year, it is changed by two inputs: the recruiting week and the total number of teams recruiting the player.
The longer the year goes on, the lower the threshold required becomes, with Week 20 culminating in the every player left making a decision to essentially anyone who recruited them at all.
The number of teams raises the amount of points needed proportionally - meaning that the amount of teams pursuing a player don't impact their 'rush' to commit, but in a lot of cases cause a lengthening of their recruiting process. What decides how quickly a player commits is the average point total per team.
If a recruit has an average of 20 points per team per week recruiting them, they'll make a decision when we advance into Week 4.
If a recruit has an average of 10 points per team per week recruiting them, they'll make a decision when we advance into Week 6.
If a recruit has an average of 1 point per team per week recruiting them, they'll likely wait until advance into Week 19.
Once the player passes the recruiting threshold, the teams that are eligible (on leading schools list + scholarship offer from school) have their point added up. The points become their odds of landing a player.
For example, if School A has 40 points invested into a player, and School B has 60 points, then School A will have a 40% chance of landing the player, and School B will have a 60% chance of landing the player.
If School A has 30 points invested into a player, School B has 35, and School C has 40 but didn't offer a scholarship, then School A has 30/65 odds, and School B will have 35/65 odds of landing that player. School C's points might have triggered the recruit's commitment decision, but since they didn't offer a scholarship, their odds of landing that player are 0%.
The goal here is to allow for a more realistic experience when recruiting players, where min/maxing to edge out other schools by 1 point doesn't make a large difference in outcomes, but managing your targets and point spending still rewards coaches.
Affinity Bonuses
Aside from players directing points from their budget into recruits, the other way to gain points is to capture what are called 'affinity bonuses'. Some recruits have 'affinities' assigned to them. All but one affinity is static, meaning any school with that affinity is eligible to get the bonus for any recruiting with that affinity. The affinities that fall into that category are:
- Academics
- Climate
- Service
- Religion
- Large Crowds
- Small School
- Frontrunner
Right now, one of them is recruit/school context dependent, meaning that the school needs to match certain criteria instead of also holding that affinity. In the future,the list of context dependent affinities will likely grow, but for now that one affinity is 'close to home'. If the school is in a location in the specific recruit's home zone, AND they have the 'close to home' affinity, they will be eligible for the bonus.
The bonus itself is an additional 25 points for the 5th, 10th, 15th, and 20th consecutive weeks you invest at least 1 point in a player. These affinity bonuses are only given to schools that are 'actively recruiting' that player. What that means is that to get the 5th week affinity bonus, you need to invest a minimum of 1 point in (for example) weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. You could also get the 5th week bonus using weeks 6-10 or 12-16. The 10th week 25 point bonus requires at least 1 point in (for example) weeks 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15. Weeks 15 and 20 bonuses follow the same pattern.
I hope this gives an in-depth review of the recruiting system's machinery. As we go from one test-run to a full sim, I'm sure there will be edits to processes, and we'll keep folks in the loop as changes are made.
- alexfall862
- 11
- 2
-
alexfall862 and Nebraska will be participating this season.
Discord is @alexfall862#$6505
- 1
-
FIRE LARRY SCOTT [uSER=1]@SUBSEQUENT[/uSER]
But also, woo! Getting closer to kickoff!
- 1
- 1
- 1
-
I'm super bummed I'm not in a position to help anymore, but this is just the coolest shit.
- 1
-
Fun fact: I did the design for their charity website! Bunch of really awesome folks. Happy to see it still going, even if we haven't had the trophy for a while...
#108 | SimFBA | Scheme Changes: Part 2 (New Attributes)
in Dev Diary
Posted
Almost certain that Dekoda is actually David Tyree's dad through some back to the future hijinks.