npklemm

I think following IRL realignment does make sense. Our chance to avoid that has kind of left the ship imo

I would greatly appreciate the ability to export a team's depth chart. For scouting purposes, it would help automate a lot of what I've done in the past.

Nice to see WVU continuing to improve in recruiting. Given how they performed this past year with how they generated, Mountaineer fans should be super hyped on the future of the program

Well, guess we can't say the sim isn't realistic

The Herbstreit takes are very Herbstreiteren, well done

Would love a review of Ball State's class

Impressive keeping McNitt to under 300 Yards!

Losing a lot on defense, but they seem to be replacing with superior players. Great season for the Utes and the future looks bright

Not a major issue, but I can't seem to remove messages in the Interface Inbox System.

Knebel is such a force of nature, hard to think he won't win this battle.

As we near the end of the season, I thought it would make sense to look at the Ball State Roster and see what players could potentially transfer. I'm only looking at guys who were at least a 3* (1/2* aren't as fun). I"ll list the player's current Year and Overall (I'm assuming a small progression for every player i.e. C+ > B-, B- > B, etc). They'll look like POS Name Archetype Star YR OVR/POT QB Fernando Woods Scrambler 3* (SO) C+/C+ Fernando was one of Coach Klemm's first commits and a signifier of the direction where the offense would eventually head. However, Woods just has not integrated himself into the offense (not fully his fault, Scott Romero is an absolute stud). He's finally gotten onto the field a little this year, but has looked quite bad. Ball State brought in both a 4* and 3* Scrambling QB in last year's class, Kevin Johnson is clearly looked as the answer at QB following Romero's career. Jeffrey Mona is already nearly on par with Woods on paper, and has more eligibility. Woods will certainly find himself as at best the #2 QB in Muncie if he stays. He has two years left of college ball, so if he prioritizes starting, he needs to look elsewhere. However, his play this year has certainly hurt his transfer prospects. Best case we'll see him be a B- OVR next season, and not many FBS Teams will find value there. If FCS are looking for players however, Woods could find a home there. RB Ronald Brennan Balanced 3* (FR) C/C+ Sources tell us that the Cards are looking to put Kevin Johnson in the Pistol long term, and Brennan just does not fit that scheme. Additionally, Ball State brought in promising 4* Kenneth Curry last season and he's clearly the future answer at RB. Additionally, the Cards brought in 3* Louis Dolan in the same class as Curry, so suddenly Brennan is buried. Add in Chris Baggett who's gotten some action on the field in 2024, and Brennan is likely at best RB4. Even if Brennan isn't looking for a starting role, he could find a rotational role at a low end FBS team, or look to the FCS ranks. TE Royce Wreh-Wilson Vertical Threat 4* (SO) B-/C Ball State isn't exactly deep at TE, having just 4 on the roster currently. There isn't a direct path to Wreh-Wilson being the clear cut starter. Cole Lillard has cemented himself as the starter for 2024 and 2025. Ball State brought in 4* Joshua Osorio in 2023. So, 2026 would be a battle of the 4*'s, and one that Wreh-Wilson may not win. 4*'s likely want to be on the field, and with just 2 years left, I imagine Royce wants to find somewhere to play. Assuming he progresses to a B OVR, I think he could find a job in the P5 or a higher level G5 Team as a starter. He'd probably be a higher sought after prospect in the portal. WR Jesse Chambliss Speed 3* (FR) C/D+ Chambliss was made nearly irrelevant following the 2023 Recruiting class. 4* Ralph Nieter and 3* Nick Klemm were brought in and are thought of to be superior players. Chambliss finds himself probably being WR3 at best, and likely not until he's a JR. WR John Davenport might supplant him based on play style/build, the former 2* is also a B+ POT, so might progress at a faster rate than Chambliss. Like a majority of 3*'s, I think most will find homes in FCS. OT Taylor Nugent Run Blocking 3* (SO) B-/B or OT Brett Federowicz Pass Blocking 3* (SO) B-/B I doubt both of these guys enter the portal, but I imagine one will. John Nunez will be in Muncie at least one more year (hopefully two more), Chad Coleman is the clear other starter in 2025. Also, there are players on the roster younger than Nugent/Federwoicz who could challenge them for the starting role in 2026. So, one of these guys might find their way somewhere else. An OT with 2 years of eligibility and a B OVR would probably be a valued prospect, I could see these guys staying in FBS and potentially "moving" up to a P5 Team. OG Lee Hayes Run Blocking 3* FR C/C+ or OG Eric Morris Run Blocking 3* C/C Part of a class that saw 5 Guards brought in, Hayes and Morris will fight each other for the same role. Grugier-Hill and Williams will be the starters in 2025, and then only one spot will open up in 2026. There are 2 2*'s on the roster who are also C OVR, who could potentially fight for the same starting role. So, all of a sudden there's 4 dudes going for one spot. Hard for me to imagine both of these guys sticking around to see who wins. One should enter the portal and try to find a home elsewhere. DE David Thomas Speed Rusher 3* JR C+/C Thomas has just been passed up over and over again, the JR also doesn't fit the defensive Scheme. Likely to be a B- OVR in 2025, Thomas should be able to find a home where he would at least be a rotational player. With the players Ball State has on the roster, and who they brought in during the 2024 Crooting cycle, Thomas will at best be DE5. He could find a place where he fits in either as DT2 or DE3 and get some playing time as a Senior. DE Joerg Berna Speed Rusher 4* (FR) C/C- Berna was a big get for the Cards, but he may never play a down for them. 5* Matt Babich and 4* Carl Victor will push him out from the beginning, while Ricky Marte and Mason Mihalik will start in 2025, Berna would crumble down the depth chart fast. He's not had a good progression early, but many teams would go after a young 4* Speed Rusher at DE. He could find a home pretty easily. DE Richard Wilson Run Stopper 3* (FR) C/C- Like the other DE's, Wilson just does not have a future at Ball State that sees him getting playing time. If he values that, he will have to look for it elsewhere. ILB Framber Martin Run Stopper 3* (JR) B/C or ILB DJ Sisco Coverage 4* JR B-/D These guys have gone back and forth in the starting line up, with Martin getting the majority of the snaps. However, he has liabilities in pass coverage that makes DJ Sisco a valid alternative depending on the opponent. Corey Noteboom is the clear #1 ILB on the Roster, so both of these guys will compete for the 2nd Spot, and as Seniors, I imagine they both want to start somewhere. If I had to guess, Sisco will be the odd guy out. Either guy could prove valuable. ILB Ian Pie Run Stopper 3* (SO) C+/C With the addition of 4* Michale Albanese and the existence of 2*'s Sammy Robinson and Johnny Livingston who could compete for the starting role, Pie's future in Muncie is uncertain. He's got two years left, so he could find a role elsewhere pretty easily. CB Joseph Brock Ball Hawk 3* SO C/A- The Cards have Tommy Murphy and Cody Moreland who will be the starters for sure in 2025, and have add 2 4*'s and 3* in the 24 Cycle. Brock has no place here, he's at best CB 5 in 2025. Not a super valuable player, Brock could be a solid CB3 at another G5 School. CB Charles Coleman Man Coverage 3* FR A/C or CB Cesar Mateo Man Coverage 3* FR C/C+ Similarly to Brock, these guys will be super depth players for the their whole career. I'd like to keep them for that purpose, I can't foresee both guys being happy with that type of role. It would be 3 years at best before either of them could see the field regularly. SS Brandon Bochy Run Stopper 3* (SO) C+/C Bochy was the heir apparent to Dilson Cortes, but that still meant he'd only start as a Senior. With the Cards bringing in 4* Gregory Saul in 2024, Bochy may not even be SS2 in 2025. he's got 2 Years left, it's probably best he found a starting role somewhere else.

File Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h78R_lQ4lg_C9gdKdbyhPgsr-WLjnEaZNx9-RPQexXI/edit?usp=sharing This was inspired by Bill Connelly's S&P+. This is far from perfect, as you'll see with the rankings. But, it's a work in process, and I'm excited for how it evolves. I am absolutely open to ideas as to what should/should not be included and how to improve this going forward Here's Your Top 25: Off-Season Action Log: 1 - Opponent Adjusted - punish weak schedules, reward difficult schedules 2 - Remove games against FCS? I'm in favor of this, but I'll await feedback from others

Link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nQ5TXCyE4WzLEwjksMjN2i98r0_Ky_uHjwOMErnmBM4/edit?usp=sharing How am I defining Success Rate? It's a metric that Bill C uses for his SP+ Rankings. First Down - Get at least 50% of the necessary yards needed for a first down Second Down - Get at least 70% of the necessary yards needed for a first down Third/Fourth Down - Get 100% of the necessary yards needed for a first down Essentially, it's a measure of how efficient an offense and how often they stay on the field. Top 5 Overall Success Rates Team Opp Play Succ Plays Succ % LSU ETSU 88 70 79.5% BAYL OKST 68 39 57.4% WAST GT 81 45 55.6% UKEN WOF 74 40 54.1% USM ECU 62 33 53.2% Top 5 Success Rates: Run Plays Team Opp Play Succ Plays Succ % LSTU ETSU 73 59 80.8% USM ECU 28 22 78.6% FLA BCU 25 17 68.0% UKEN WOF 55 35 63.6% HAWI BOIS 47 29 61.7% Top 5 Success Rates: Pass Plays Team Opp Play Succ Plays Succ % LSU ETSU 15 11 73.3% BAYL OKST 29 18 62.1% TXST USA 39 21 53.8% LOU BC 33 17 51.5% TLDO MIAO 39 20 51.3% Bottom 5 Overall Success Rates Team Opp Play Succ Plays Succ % WASH USC 65 2 3.1% ARMY FAU 66 8 12.1% UCLA NEB 55 8 14.5% ARST ULL 69 11 15.9% JST LT 72 12 16.7% Bottom 5 Success Rates: Run Plays Team Opp Play Succ Plays Succ % WAS USC 9 0 0.0% GT WAST 1 0 0.0% ND FRES 1 0 0.0% TROY MISS 17 1 5.9% SDSU UNLV 13 1 7.7% Bottom 5 Success Rates: Pass Plays Team Opp Play Succ Plays Succ % WASH USC 56 2 3.6% USAF WYOM 24 1 4.2% ULL ARST 36 2 5.6% ARST ULL 45 3 6.7% ARMY FAU 36 4 11.1%

Notes: - Any 3rd Down Play that contains a Penalty is Omitted (difficult to parse easily what the specific outcome was - there were 60 of these instances) - Short 3rd Down Attempt is Fewer than 5 Yards - Medium 3rd Down Attempt is 5-8 Yards - Long 3rd Down Attempt is 9+ Yards Link to Data Set: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WaBQpmD7m1Y7Wm2dNJq1lXv0EW2cxfzA_xDQaEmGOpc/edit?usp=sharing Now, to the fun part: Top 5 Conversions: Team Opp Conv Att Conv% BAYL OKST 7 9 77.8% LSU ETSU 5 7 71.4% TXST USA 10 14 71.4% UNM UTST 11 16 68.8% UNC UVA 14 21 66.7% Bottom 5 Conversions: Team Opp Conv Att Conv% ARST ULL 0 19 0.0% SHSU WKU 1 14 7.1% OHST PNST 1 12 8.3% WASH USC 2 19 10.5% ARMY FAU 2 18 11.1% Most Attempts: Team Opp Conv Att Conv% FRES ND 7 24 29.2% LU NMSU 7 23 30.4% FAU ARMY 8 23 34.8% ULL ARST 6 22 27.3% AZST TTU 10 22 45.5% Fewest Attempts: Team Opp Conv Att Conv% LSU ETSU 5 7 71.4% TULS USF 2 9 22.2% LOU BC 3 9 33.3% BAYL OKST 7 9 77.8% UKEN WOF 4 10 40.0%