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2023 Elo Ratings


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Thanks to @Ezaco I realized we actually have a formatted list of game results from last season which meanssss I am actually able to run an Elo rating system on last season!

See link below for full information including sheets with pre-postseason standings. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wKmjt5rkxSgOHVFGz1ulZ-lK_0XDE8AYNj32f3tWHqw/edit?usp=sharing

Below I'll post the full chart in-line but here's a quick explanation:

Elo is a predictive measure that presumes to rank teams based on who is most likely to win a future matchup. It not only includes wins, but also MOV (although that is capped at 25, so beating a team by 26 and by 50 are counted the same).

Strength of schedule is just the average elo of the opponents, regardless of wins/losses.

Expected wins is how many wins (based on elo ratings) the rank X team would have against that schedule.

Strength Of Record is the ranking of (actual wins - top 25 expected wins).

high elo, low SOR seems to imply you dusted the bad teams you played, but took some losses that are unexpected based on those other game scores

low elo, high SOR means you won a bunch of close games basically (or you played a few very, very good teams that anybody would be expected to lose to)

low elo, low SOR means you were bad

 

All FBS teams started the year with an elo rating of 1500 while FCS teams started at 1000.

How well do you think this matches up with your expectations? How about the pre-postseason version? 

 

Team Elo Rating Elo Rank Win-Loss Record Strength of Schedule SOS Rank Expected Wins top 5 Expected Wins top 25 Expected Wins top 75 SOR rank
TCU 1825.08 1 14-2 1591.39 2 10.7302 8.73136 5.74485 1
USC 1816.51 2 14-2 1547.88 8 11.2973 9.45081 6.59885 2
Bowling_Green 1741.88 3 11-3 1490.86 63 10.9233 9.41014 6.76115 13
Houston 1733.29 4 11-4 1568.72 3 10.2216 8.52712 5.94475 7
Tennessee 1732.69 5 13-2 1518.48 25 10.9601 9.26331 6.56292 3
Nevada 1716.9 6 11-3 1530.36 17 10.5293 8.83753 5.99306 8
Baylor 1702.56 7 11-3 1554.91 5 9.94843 8.33774 5.73488 5
Notre_Dame 1697.04 8 11-2 1505.99 42 9.76277 8.38719 6.0887 6
UCLA 1679.79 9 11-5 1559.64 4 11.0594 9.26621 6.49682 11
Tulsa 1677.78 10 11-3 1477.32 83 10.868 9.38256 6.83707 12
Ohio_State 1676.83 11 11-3 1487.2 71 10.9456 9.46049 6.84502 14
Wake_Forest 1674.28 12 11-3 1502.66 44 10.6774 9.14894 6.56534 10
Florida_State 1670.02 13 10-4 1451.52 113 11.0143 9.62445 7.22098 26
Auburn 1665.21 14 12-2 1485.33 75 10.6405 9.1092 6.57889 4
Navy 1663.32 15 9-4 1488.65 66 9.99229 8.61613 6.28363 25
Northern_Illinois 1662.6 16 10-3 1467.05 95 10.4489 9.12018 6.69075 18
Marshall 1657.25 17 12-3 1499.59 47 11.5331 9.9006 7.09221 9
Central_Michigan 1649.76 18 10-4 1491 62 10.8529 9.36049 6.77203 21
Miami_(OH) 1642.08 19 10-3 1460.24 107 10.2835 9.00862 6.76777 17
Georgia_Southern 1637.07 20 9-4 1487.3 70 10.1872 8.78679 6.32559 29
LSU 1634.21 21 9-4 1451.56 112 10.1807 8.89821 6.65297 32
Georgia 1633.92 22 9-4 1543.36 11 9.42162 7.87989 5.40806 16
Georgia_Tech 1630.89 23 9-4 1481.86 78 10.2136 8.83397 6.41195 30
Louisiana_Tech 1629.69 24 10-3 1420.27 129 10.4241 9.17453 7.03855 19
Kansas 1628.82 25 8-5 1513.71 31 9.77732 8.36541 5.9642 37
SMU 1628.67 26 9-4 1509.28 36 9.96042 8.48349 5.95285 23
Colorado 1622.63 27 10-3 1464.97 102 10.0467 8.77696 6.60823 15
North_Carolina 1617.43 28 8-5 1507.67 41 10.0061 8.52672 5.97076 43
Illinois 1616.4 29 9-4 1460.45 106 10.5922 9.27308 6.79893 36
Wisconsin 1613.75 30 9-5 1543.96 10 10.2394 8.54689 5.79111 24
Kentucky 1604.99 31 8-5 1486.86 72 9.81432 8.47748 6.26363 41
Hawaii 1599.53 32 9-4 1445.94 117 10.22 8.88735 6.62065 31
San_Diego_State 1582.71 33 7-6 1508.45 38 9.92789 8.46303 5.96834 54
Iowa_State 1578.53 34 8-5 1486.77 73 10.067 8.62907 6.1691 45
Pittsburgh 1576.76 35 9-4 1492.76 59 9.78242 8.37325 6.08706 22
San_Jose_State 1575.7 36 9-5 1483.99 77 10.9777 9.46942 6.81642 40
Tulane 1573.86 37 7-6 1472.52 89 10.4229 9.07193 6.5992 68
South_Carolina 1572.95 38 9-4 1468.91 94 10.1023 8.74402 6.44117 28
Western_Kentucky 1572.88 39 10-4 1435.42 123 11.0883 9.68789 7.32811 27
Fresno_State 1568.73 40 7-6 1500.56 46 10.0509 8.61782 6.12317 56
North_Texas 1568.35 41 8-5 1537.28 15 9.63165 8.05283 5.45487 33
Middle_Tennessee 1567.69 42 9-5 1451.28 114 10.8466 9.41504 7.06677 38
UAB 1566.12 43 8-5 1496.94 53 9.9827 8.53364 6.08929 44
Texas 1561.75 44 8-5 1528.16 19 9.56949 8.12898 5.73948 34
Ole_Miss 1555.14 45 8-5 1497.53 51 9.95356 8.50463 6.07 42
New_Mexico_State 1551.41 46 8-5 1418.53 130 10.5291 9.27424 7.07288 50
Mississippi_State 1549.82 47 8-5 1498.65 50 9.93548 8.45628 5.97982 39
Oregon_State 1549.22 48 8-5 1442.86 119 10.4332 9.16645 6.91419 49
UMass 1545.79 49 7-6 1433.71 124 10.3739 9.10391 6.91013 71
Kansas_State 1545.11 50 7-6 1476.78 86 10.3087 8.95099 6.51897 65
Appalachian_State 1544.93 51 9-4 1465.13 101 10.4944 9.17224 6.72954 35
Memphis 1543.58 52 10-4 1477.99 81 10.7162 9.21705 6.76304 20
Southern_Miss 1542.85 53 7-6 1488.73 65 10.2506 8.85242 6.33372 62
Penn_State 1539.11 54 8-5 1433.7 125 10.5799 9.34166 7.07759 52
Alabama 1533.69 55 5-7 1500.64 45 8.93065 7.57767 5.41434 80
Ball_State 1528.88 56 7-6 1496.53 54 9.91309 8.53937 6.22084 55
Oklahoma 1528.32 57 8-5 1487.74 69 10.2969 8.87233 6.31118 47
Texas_State 1524.89 58 7-6 1517.15 28 9.77011 8.35978 5.93883 53
South_Alabama 1522.43 59 7-6 1455.98 110 10.5931 9.30372 6.88933 74
Temple 1521.37 60 7-6 1463.49 104 10.225 8.88483 6.56919 64
Texas_A&M 1520.84 61 6-7 1534.03 16 9.54397 7.99389 5.4956 66
Oregon 1520.36 62 7-7 1337.46 133 10.3786 9.1572 6.96302 72
Duke 1519.27 63 5-7 1491.97 61 9.24873 7.96446 5.77453 92
UCF 1517.24 64 7-6 1466.6 97 9.93818 8.64355 6.47547 60
FIU 1512.16 65 8-5 1393.11 131 10.8043 9.64213 7.51652 59
Nebraska 1505.98 66 8-5 1499.21 49 10.1316 8.6756 6.11643 46
Northwestern 1505.09 67 5-7 1540.22 14 8.89353 7.42564 4.99365 76
Oklahoma_State 1502.18 68 6-6 1691.87 1 9.20935 7.63605 5.13282 58
Washington 1498.53 69 5-7 1508.57 37 9.06079 7.76104 5.55714 84
California 1497.23 70 7-6 1497.05 52 9.99814 8.61809 6.21227 57
Stanford 1491.69 71 5-7 1523.33 23 8.6623 7.30616 5.1774 75
UTEP 1486.32 72 7-6 1425.15 128 10.3704 9.10023 6.92801 70
Rutgers 1480.7 73 7-6 1438.53 120 10.5698 9.29718 6.96567 73
UNLV 1480.09 74 5-7 1521.3 24 9.06331 7.67074 5.31508 83
Iowa 1477.44 75 8-5 1469.74 93 10.2607 8.87473 6.45405 48
Cincinnati 1472.84 76 5-7 1554.11 6 8.47394 7.07542 4.88354 69
Akron 1472.12 77 7-6 1517.24 27 9.78658 8.32459 5.86165 51
Purdue 1471.7 78 7-6 1448.99 115 10.3789 9.0582 6.7198 67
UTSA 1459.68 79 5-7 1492.58 60 9.37424 8.05781 5.74511 93
Troy 1459.25 80 8-6 1437.43 122 11.2595 9.86648 7.37702 63
Air_Force 1457.21 81 7-6 1493.14 58 10.2455 8.81177 6.23722 61
Ohio 1452.91 82 5-7 1499.51 48 9.1717 7.88938 5.70058 89
Virginia 1447.92 83 5-7 1466.22 99 9.60042 8.38653 6.18963 101
Louisiana_Monroe 1446.46 84 5-7 1508.26 39 9.14849 7.84656 5.58687 88
Florida 1446.31 85 6-7 1480.95 80 9.89405 8.5123 6.248 79
New_Mexico 1444.97 86 4-8 1550.96 7 8.69554 7.2306 4.86079 97
Army 1440.24 87 6-7 1425.79 127 10.6265 9.42006 7.21248 103
Colorado_State 1438.64 88 3-9 1514.19 30 9.14012 7.77747 5.44401 141
Boise_State 1435.76 89 6-7 1472.94 88 10.1855 8.78005 6.34582 85
Miami_(FL) 1435.51 90 4-8 1490.78 64 9.26778 7.98573 5.79184 114
Texas_Tech 1434.3 91 4-8 1542.74 13 8.58667 7.22758 5.06688 96
Utah_State 1433.9 92 6-7 1510.07 35 9.90418 8.43016 5.92609 77
Maryland 1429.4 93 5-7 1507.74 40 9.17514 7.83932 5.54422 87
Minnesota 1428.39 94 6-7 1477.66 82 10.063 8.64027 6.2308 82
Coastal_Carolina 1413.38 95 4-8 1429.36 126 9.79118 8.65756 6.59037 138
Syracuse 1411.52 96 3-9 1484.22 76 9.03753 7.7443 5.67468 140
Michigan 1410.37 97 3-9 1495.6 56 9.32796 8.02164 5.73227 148
East_Carolina 1408.49 98 3-9 1504.84 43 9.16911 7.83622 5.57704 142
NC_State 1405.68 99 6-7 1475.84 87 10.2978 8.95973 6.55893 91
Virginia_Tech 1404.99 100 5-7 1477.25 84 9.47214 8.2181 5.99737 95
Arkansas 1403.77 101 6-7 1457.61 109 10.2687 8.89606 6.50596 90
Rice 1403.32 102 4-8 1512.61 33 8.98998 7.66774 5.47823 110
Florida_Atlantic 1403.26 103 5-7 1458.68 108 9.72706 8.52715 6.30332 107
Georgia_State 1401.18 104 5-7 1466.42 98 9.57768 8.35786 6.16943 100
Arizona 1398.9 105 4-8 1471.59 91 9.29153 8.10888 6.07867 116
Old_Dominion 1398.61 106 5-7 1438.5 121 9.62059 8.44939 6.39025 104
Louisville 1398.39 107 5-7 1445.85 118 9.66297 8.45113 6.28503 105
Kent_State 1392.62 108 4-8 1493.48 57 9.20639 7.92987 5.74959 112
Wyoming 1392.62 109 5-7 1516.76 29 9.18061 7.78795 5.37956 86
Western_Michigan 1391.84 110 5-7 1454.68 111 9.59272 8.38958 6.25799 102
Liberty 1385.19 111 5-7 1357.44 132 10.0897 9.09657 7.29992 115
Arkansas_State 1379.82 112 3-9 1470.06 92 9.68582 8.43855 6.12633 158
Buffalo 1372.41 113 3-9 1488.47 67 9.21681 7.92309 5.72427 145
Indiana 1365.1 114 4-8 1472.41 90 9.27522 7.97685 5.79631 113
Vanderbilt 1357.83 115 3-9 1495.74 55 8.94555 7.58413 5.40043 134
Arizona_State 1349.95 116 2-10 1542.97 12 8.58651 7.20672 5.02773 153
Louisiana 1346.21 117 3-9 1487.86 68 9.54149 8.22532 5.83208 154
Washington_State 1344.93 118 5-7 1461.31 105 9.46593 8.19065 5.96534 94
West_Virginia 1341.41 119 3-9 1486.11 74 9.24072 7.92272 5.68376 144
Charlotte 1331.71 120 3-9 1518.23 26 8.9845 7.61276 5.3524 135
Toledo 1321.88 121 3-9 1529.27 18 8.88246 7.48603 5.19777 127
BYU 1318.66 122 3-9 1513.68 32 8.77151 7.48353 5.42231 126
Missouri 1314.6 123 2-10 1525.55 22 8.66897 7.25423 5.07042 155
Michigan_State 1302.43 124 2-10 1512.13 34 9.1918 7.82474 5.46465 166
Eastern_Michigan 1299.47 125 2-10 1477.18 85 9.28228 8.05195 5.95286 168
Clemson 1299.39 126 3-9 1544.61 9 8.80419 7.32743 4.92381 119
UConn 1297.24 127 1-12 1528.06 20 9.55968 8.04897 5.61547 178
James_Madison 1296.74 128 3-9 1481.6 79 9.42442 8.14097 5.88981 149
South_Florida 1252.68 129 2-11 1466.73 96 10.5054 9.16757 6.69025 179
Boston_College 1252.38 130 2-10 1527.71 21 8.83453 7.50032 5.29808 159
Utah 1234.66 131 2-10 1463.66 103 9.24295 8.03339 5.97463 167
North_Dakota_State 1221.43 132 12-3 1028.77 165 14.6817 14.4356 13.7445 78
Youngstown_State 1211.94 133 9-6 1122.22 138 14.0851 13.5751 12.4868 133
Lafayette 1211.7 134 10-4 997.563 184 13.7682 13.5863 13.0629 108
Kennesaw_State 1195.08 135 1-11 1465.45 100 9.20479 7.90017 5.77976 177
Illinois_State 1176.73 136 10-4 1063.96 150 13.5621 13.2426 12.4116 98
Cal_Poly 1139.08 137 6-5 1065.35 149 10.4646 10.1512 9.47954 117
Grambling 1134.74 138 9-4 1002.73 181 12.5834 12.3315 11.7616 99
Idaho_State 1115.09 139 7-5 1036.74 158 11.7236 11.5134 10.9358 128
Southern_Illinois 1104.26 140 8-6 962.882 194 12.6546 12.4014 11.7347 125
Western_Illinois 1095.69 141 7-5 1073.24 146 11.6485 11.3831 10.665 124
Prairie_View_A&M 1089.71 142 9-4 979.953 189 12.794 12.6327 12.1701 109
UC_Davis 1077.05 143 9-3 1004.48 180 11.788 11.6222 11.1482 81
Montana_State 1076.02 144 8-5 1018.33 172 12.7607 12.5734 12.0368 131
Mississippi_Valley_State 1068.43 145 6-5 1048.87 155 10.5846 10.3312 9.75617 122
Colgate 1062.76 146 6-5 1033.01 162 10.7237 10.5202 9.98165 129
Weber_State 1058.6 147 7-5 1018.22 173 11.7834 11.613 11.1214 136
Jacksonville_State 1039.05 148 4-8 1312.69 134 10.1378 9.19858 7.55588 151
Northern_Iowa 1037.78 149 5-6 1133.08 136 10.3047 9.89397 9.01404 143
Northern_Colorado 1032.72 150 7-4 1135.99 135 11.7612 11.5736 11.0345 132
Pennsylvania 1026.77 151 4-6 1091.77 144 9.35604 9.00005 8.29268 147
Furman 1024.33 152 6-5 1008.05 177 10.5615 10.3283 9.84709 120
Georgetown 1020.85 153 5-6 1122.73 137 10.4896 10.1495 9.3431 150
East_Tennessee_State 1017.43 154 6-5 985.093 187 10.7986 10.6457 10.2245 137
Holy_Cross 1017.35 155 8-5 1069.9 147 12.4894 12.1626 11.391 118
Sacramento_State 1013.49 156 6-5 1035.24 161 10.5884 10.3379 9.77252 123
VMI 1010.31 157 5-6 1005.85 179 10.7203 10.5261 10.0411 161
The_Citadel 1007.62 158 5-6 1030.11 164 10.6611 10.4235 9.83411 157
Columbia 1007.06 159 6-4 970.959 192 9.86844 9.76359 9.45475 111
Yale 1005.49 160 5-5 1008.42 176 9.55326 9.32886 8.8851 121
Chattanooga 1002.31 161 7-5 1106.24 141 10.92 10.5023 9.78773 106
Fordham 1001.79 162 4-7 1115.21 139 10.4454 10.098 9.31307 169
Jackson_State 992.811 163 6-6 1061.43 151 11.3535 10.9955 10.2662 146
Lehigh 992.214 164 6-6 1095.92 143 11.5127 11.1989 10.4536 152
Murray_State 991.176 165 6-5 986.487 186 10.8092 10.6607 10.2399 139
BethuneCookman 986.944 166 4-7 1017.72 174 10.6945 10.4826 9.95472 173
Cornell 985.44 167 5-5 1027.42 167 9.71994 9.52064 9.01381 130
Wofford 984.645 168 5-6 1025.83 169 10.5814 10.34 9.81391 156
Princeton 976.895 169 4-6 1007.99 178 9.69956 9.50246 9.03663 160
Alabama_State 973.737 170 4-7 1021.98 170 10.6198 10.3846 9.84927 172
Montana 972.166 171 5-6 1028.24 166 10.7755 10.6009 10.106 162
Sam_Houston_State 969.453 172 1-11 1447.78 116 9.62674 8.40985 6.25888 182
Bucknell 969.342 173 5-6 989.195 185 10.8233 10.6846 10.286 163
Alcorn_State 963.692 174 5-6 967.047 193 10.8447 10.7219 10.3644 164
Portland_State 956.567 175 4-7 1040.19 157 10.6129 10.3657 9.78844 171
South_Dakota_State 948.382 176 3-8 1066.47 148 10.629 10.3649 9.69405 181
Indiana_State 925.7 177 4-7 1102.98 142 10.4969 10.155 9.3341 170
South_Dakota 923.911 178 4-7 1050.81 153 10.7317 10.5255 9.95293 174
Eastern_Washington 915.467 179 3-8 1042.21 156 10.7288 10.5251 9.97396 183
Brown 914.788 180 3-7 978.464 191 9.86363 9.75502 9.43538 175
Samford 911.994 181 3-8 1036.44 159 10.4653 10.2129 9.71076 180
Florida_A&M 910.784 182 4-7 1111.58 140 10.1994 9.80224 9.03237 165
Alabama_A&M 904.543 183 3-8 1001.07 182 10.8256 10.6874 10.2848 188
Harvard 892.714 184 3-7 979.126 190 9.86476 9.75696 9.43924 176
Mercer 892.464 185 2-9 1032.71 163 10.7292 10.528 9.99064 193
Northern_Arizona 885.65 186 3-8 1055.95 152 10.759 10.5713 10.0385 185
ArkansasPine_Bluff 882.669 187 3-8 1014.99 175 10.7241 10.5253 10.0108 184
North_Dakota 878.696 188 3-8 1036.28 160 10.7703 10.5918 10.0872 187
Idaho 878.296 189 3-8 1049.2 154 10.7593 10.5723 10.0438 186
Texas_Southern 874.82 190 3-8 983.899 188 10.8358 10.706 10.328 190
Missouri_State 840.495 191 2-9 1084.73 145 10.6106 10.3394 9.6609 192
Western_Carolina 840.181 192 2-9 1018.46 171 10.7986 10.641 10.19 194
Southern 833.506 193 2-9 1027.32 168 10.5028 10.2497 9.73291 191
Dartmouth 825.51 194 2-8 1000.76 183 9.8344 9.70451 9.33112 189

 

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