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Wahoo's Comprehensive Preseason CBB Preview: Part 1


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Welcome to Wahoo’s comprehensive CBB season preview. We will be going over my preseason Top 25, national awards predictions, top 10 games to watch, conference rankings, all-conference teams, and projected postseason seeds. 

 

Some disclaimers to start: my team rankings and award predictions are based on the proprietary Wahoo Ability Ranking model (WAR™). Through a top-secret formula, I assign each player a rating. My formula has different weightings based on what I view as more or less important. These weightings are different from Tuscan’s weightings, and likely different from what you would choose. My weightings do tilt towards offensive ability over other factors, so you will often see teams with a few great shooters outrank teams with great defense or many average shooters. Players are also not ranked based only on their Overall rating; there are many situations where a C overall is rated higher than a B overall based on their individual attributes. The top 8 players on a team contribute to a team’s ranking, with a heavier weighting on the starting 5. I do not account for positions; I assume that most teams will find a gameplan that will work to get their best players on the court. However, a team’s ranking could theoretically be made up of 5 centers, which would obviously not be a valid lineup. AI teams may also not value their players the same way I do and default to different gameplans and lineups. However, I do believe my system gives a general sense of the talent that would be playing for each team. And if you disagree, then make your own formula!

 

Let’s get into it, starting with the preseason top 25, conference strength, national awards.

Preseason Top 25

Preseason Top 25

1

Villanova

Big East

2

Army

Patriot

3

San Francisco

West Coast

4

Colorado State

Mountain West

5

Wisconsin

Big 10

6

Kansas

Big 12

7

Purdue

Big 10

8

South Alabama

Sun Belt

9

UC Irvine

Big West

10

Utah

PAC 12

11

Eastern Michigan

MAC

12

Davidson

Atlantic 10

13

Iowa State

Big 12

14

Fresno State

Mountain West

15

UMBC

America East

16

Southern Miss

Sun Belt

17

BYU

Big 12

18

Buffalo

MAC

19

Baylor

Big 12

20

Western Michigan

MAC

21

Missouri

SEC

22

Pittsburgh

ACC

23

Wyoming

Mountain West

24

Seton Hall

Big East

25

Navy

Patriot

 

There is a great diversity of conferences amongst the preseason Top 25 with 14 different conferences having at least one team ranked. The Big 12 leads the way with 4 teams ranked, followed by the MAC and Mountain West with 3. The Big 10 is the only conference to put 2 teams into the Top 10. The Big East, Patriot League, and Sun Belt also have multiple ranked teams. 

 

Villanova and Army lead the way in the top 2 positions, being some of the few schools with 3 A-rated players on their roster. Villanova gets the nod with a bevy of support behind their top 3 players, while Army’s roster is noticeably thinner in depth. No team is more top loaded than San Francisco, though. A nation-leading 4 A-rated players don the Dons jersey, but there is little else on the roster that shows promise. How much of a drop off will we see in SF’s play when their stars aren’t on the court? Colorado State could have the best 1-2 punch in the country with Jr. C Andree Mann, a projected first-team All-American, and (Sr.) SF Jules Stillwell, a projected second-team All-American. Army is the only other squad with 2 players on the projected All-American teams, placing Jr. PF Jack Beckmann on the first-team and Sr. PG Reginald Gray on the third-team. Wisconsin rounds out the preseason Top 5 with 2 A overalls backed up by plenty of support.

Conference Strength

The Big 12 may have more preseason ranked teams, but the ACC looks to be the most competitive conference overall. Only Pittsburgh cracked the Top 25 at #22, but 9 other teams rank inside the Top 65. With Virginia ranked at 75, the ACC could feasibly have 11 teams competing for tournament bids. However, my pick for best conference in the nation would go to the MAC. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, and Western Michigan all rank in the Top 25, Bowling Green just missed the cut at #26, and a total of 7 teams are in the Top 60. This conference features 2 projected All-Americans and Toledo, a team with 3 A overalls that projects at 6th (!) in the conference. The MAC conference champion will have certainly earned their title at the end of the season.

 

Conference

Highest Ranked

Lowest Ranked

Average

ACC

22

152

70.9

MAC

11

168

71.8

Sun Belt

8

157

77.7

Mountain West

4

172

82.2

Big Ten

5

170

82.5

Pac-12

10

163

85.4

WCC

3

164

86.8

Big East

1

159

90.8

SEC

21

171

93.4

American

28

161

95.8

Big 12

6

154

102.9

A10

12

173

105.5

C-USA

36

321

145.5

AEC

15

342

213.9

Summit League

84

345

215.7

Patriot

2

347

216.4

WAC

42

311

221.7

ASUN

44

353

240.5

Big West

9

330

247.1

Big South

187

335

254.3

NEC

181

352

255.4

MVC

136

359

259.4

Big Sky

189

343

266.3

SoCon

177

354

271.8

SWAC

183

360

272.2

Colonial Athletic

192

362

273.9

OVC

176

357

276.5

Horizon League

180

349

280.0

Ivy League

206

338

281.3

Southland

175

363

281.4

MEAC

194

358

283.6

Independent

185

364

286.0

MAAC

193

361

287.2

 

National Awards

 

First Team All-Americans

PF Christopher Merlo

Jr

Nebraska

C Henry Gonzales

Sr

UC Irvine

PF Jack Beckmann

Jr

Army

SF Jonathan Hughes

Sr

Colorado

C Andre Mann

Jr

Colorado State

 

Second Team All-Americans

PF Felipe Raymond

Sr

UTEP

C Christopher Netninn

Jr

Bowling Green

C Jose Guadian

Sr

Syracuse

SF Jules Stillwell

(Sr)

Colorado State

PG William Smith

Sr

St. John’s

 

Third Team All-Americans

C Robert Lampe

Jr

UMBC

SF Glenn Everett

Jr

Central Michigan

PG Reginald Gray

Sr

Army

SF Craig Bennett

Jr

Iowa State

PF Aziz Chea

Sr

South Carolina

 

Wooden Award Winner

PF Christopher Merlo

Jr

Nebraska

 

All-Freshman Team

SF Matthew Cooper

Fr

Tulane

PF Giovanni Giorgio

Fr

South Alabama

C Shankar Chen

Fr

West Virginia

PF Jesse Strickland

Fr

Georgetown

SF Andy Le

Fr

Seattle

 

We have talked a lot about the collections of star power at the top teams in the country, but the best player in the nation may reside on a team that will be right on the bubble. Jr. PF Christopher Merlo will look to carry a Nebraska team dangerously thin on depth to the promised land. The only knocks on Merlo’s game is his tendency to be a little loose with the ball, but he makes up for it by excelling in all other categories of the game. While Merlo is our pick for best overall player, Colorado State’s (Sr.) SF Jules Stillwell is the best pure scorer. Stillwell can knock down a shot from anywhere on the court and has the skills to dribble to the rim if the defense isn’t ready. He takes some time off on defense but is still able to stay with the best players. With Jr. C Andre Mann also garnering a lot of the defense’s attention, Stillwell should have plenty of opportunities to rack up his box score stats.

 

Top 10 Games to Watch

10. Army at Navy - Week 13

9. Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - Week 10

8. Wisconsin at Baylor - Week 2

7. UMBC at San Francisco - Week 12

6. South Alabama at Davidson - Week 5

5. Colorado State at Fresno State - Week 13

4. Utah at Kansas - Week 3

3. Wisconsin at UC Irvine - Week 1

2. Wisconsin at Purdue - Week 13

1. Villanova at Kansas - Week 5

 

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