CFP Semi-Final Game Preview: Tennessee vs TCU

[BabaYaga]

Time: Saturday Evening
Location: Rose Bowl
Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
Capacity: 89,702
2023 records: Tennessee 13-1 (8-1 SEC), TCU 13-1 (9-1 Big 12)
Series: Tennessee and TCU have not met in SimFBA
TV: ESPN (PxP Chris Fowler, Analyst Kirk Herbstreit, Sidelines Holly Rowe)
Weather Report: Apparently it will be 0 degrees in California at kick…

Key Injuries
Tennessee - Hayes Edwards - (JR) - WR - A overall
TCU - None

 

Tale of the Tape

Tennessee

Points per Game: 40.4 (#1)

Total Yards per Game: 549.8 (#1)

Passing Yards per Game: 486.1 (#2)

Rushing Yards per Game: 60.6 (#171)

 

Total Yards Allowed per game: 329.5 (#118)

Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 190.1 (#91)

Rushing Yards Allowed per Game: 139.4 (#157)

Points Allowed per Game: 16.7 (#96)

 

TCU

Points per Game: 26.8 (#16)

Total Yards per Game: 444.3 (#9)

Passing Yards per Game: 310.5 (#13)

Rushing Yards per Game: 133.7 (#72)

 

Total Yards Allowed per game: 346.3 (#145)

Passing Yards Allowed per Game: 210.3 (#129)

Rushing Yards Allowed per Game: 136.0 (#148)

Points Allowed per Game: 15.7 (#86)

Tenneesee running game versus TCU against the run

What running game? No, seriously. Tennessee does not have a running game as they put all of their success on the back of their QB. They do have a good stable of backs but their top three ball carriers are a QB, RB, and TE. Senior QB Ahtyba Johnson leads the team with 414 yards on 120 carries and has scored 7 touchdowns. Their best running back is the player who is the backup, however. Senior J.C. Hardy has toted the ball for 305 yards but is averaging over 5.6 yards a carry. Despite Hardy having the ability to churn out over five yards a carry, he just doesn’t touch the ball much averaging just three carries a game. TCU is solid at stopping the run and can get in the backfield in a hurry. Junior ILB Travis Cravens has 20 tackles for loss this year. As a team TCU has 82 tackles for loss on the season. While not a super stout run defense, they don’t allow big plays. Edge: TCU

Tenneesee passing game versus TCU against the pass

Tennessee’s pass offense is ranked as the #2 attack in the country and their success this year lies on the arm of sophomore Brandon Savage. Savage has thrown for 447.3 yards per game and has thrown 50 touchdowns this season. At times, he does struggle with decision making as he’s also tossed 14 interceptions. However, he is completing nearly 65% of his passes on the season. His favorite target is redshirt senior Matt Siri who has caught 112 passes for 2,052 yards. Siri has been a huge part of the success this year as he has caught 14 touchdowns on the year. His other favorite target is redshirt junior Hayes Edwards who is out with injury for this game. Edwards has 100 catches on the year for 1,747 yards and 15 touchdowns. Junior Eric Barnhart will be the next man up for Tennessee as he has 59 catches for 850 yards this year. The Tennessee receiving corp is definitely not at full strength and behind Siri they don’t have a true #2, which could be cause for concern. TCU has 18 interceptions on the season which is a Top 25 mark in all of college football. They also only allow 210 yards through the air per game. The top two cornerbacks for TCU have been very good. Junior Curtis Billingsley has 10 pass deflections and three interceptions while senior Chris Swanson has 8 deflections and six interceptions. They have struggled a bit against spread offenses as they are starting two freshmen at CB3 and CB4 - that is an area that has been attacked by offenses before. This is a big play Tennessee passing game going against a big play TCU pass defense. Edge: Tennessee

TCU running game versus Tennessee against the run

TCU has been able to run the ball at a solid clip this season and is much more balanced on the offensive end than Tennessee. They are led on the ground by senior Stanley Segovia who has run the ball for 1,520 yards and seven touchdowns. Segovia is their lone running back that is producing much of an attack but he has been very good on the ground. Tennessee has 75 tackles for loss this year and has been effective in stopping the run. They have done a nice job of setting the edge and punching the ball out with seven forced fumbles. For Tennessee, it starts up front on the defensive line. Redshirt senior defensive tackle Steve Markkanen has 50 tackles and 19 tackles for loss. Fellow defensive tackle senior Jason Marte has 44 tackles and 15 tackles for loss. If the running back gets past those two, then senior inside linebacker JT Adams is there to clean it up as he leads the team in tackles with 65 including 23 tackles for loss. Segovia will be the best running back that this Tennessee defense has faced all year. Edge: TCU

TCU passing game versus Tennessee against the pass

TCU senior quarterback Andrew Solano has been very good this year at times and not very good at other times. He has thrown for 4,140 yards this year and has completed 69.4 percent of his passes good for a 155.38 QBR. However, even though he has thrown 36 touchdowns he has thrown 17 interceptions. The offensive line for TCU has been very good only allowing nine sacks on the season. This OL group has been one of the best in the country against some of the best defensive line groups in the country. It is a two-headed monster at wideout for TCU as junior Oren Colon and senior Trevon Guerrieri have both been excellent. Colon has 96 catches for 1,607 yards and 12 touchdowns while Guerrieri has 92 catches for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. Segovia coming out of the backfield has been a real weapon with 71 catches on the season and 11 touchdowns. TCU will look to lean on these three heavily for their offense. Tennessee has been very good against the pass this year allowing less than 200 yards per game. Redshirt senior Zach Cabinda and senior Eric Harlow are going to need to be at the top of their game this weekend. Harlow has seven interceptions and four deflections which Cabinda has eight deflections and three interceptions. Neither of these corners have allowed many yards on them this year. The biggest matchup will come in the flats as Segovia goes out for a pass. Tennessee’s linebackers could be in a tough spot as they can’t cover in space very well. I look for Tennessee to see if they can get matchups they like out in space on the running backs. The corners for Tennessee should be able to shut down the outside. Edge: Tennessee

Overall Outlook

TCU wants to use the dink-and-dunk passing to set up the run where they can just shove it down the throat of the defense. They have to play complimentary football in order to win. Tennessee wants to throw it all over the field and score as quickly as possible. Run game be damned. I like the matchups for this Tennessee team in this game. I think their cornerbacks will shut down the options for Solano on the outside and I don’t think that TCU has the firepower to hang with Tennessee. Tennessee’s offense will be slowed a bit by injuries but I still think they put up points by spreading the field as the TCU secondary isn’t particularly deep.

How Can Tennessee Win?

Tennessee can win simply by playing to their strengths. They can outscore anyone in college football and Savage is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. If Savage takes care of the ball and they get out to an early lead, I don’t see TCU having the firepower to come back with wanting to establish the running game. Tennessee will need to shut down the outside receivers for TCU as well and force TCU to take what they can get on each play.

How Can TCU Win?

TCU can win if they take care of the ball and force Savage into a few early mistakes. Savage has had a few moments this year of being inaccurate and TCU will need to take advantage. Without their second best receiver, Tennessee will need to spread the ball around a bit more and that could make Savage uncomfortable. TCU will need to establish the run early and often to have a shot as Solano won’t be able to fly up and down the field like Savage will. TCU must win the turnover battle to have a chance.

Prediction

Tennessee 34, TCU 20

 

@tsweezy @Giambro

Edited September 30, 2023 by BabaYaga

[Giambro]

Wow, great prediction!

[BabaYaga]

22 hours ago, Giambro said:

Wow, great prediction!

Thanks! I worked hard on it.