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Posted

Alright strap yourselves in, this is going to be a long one with lots of tables and graphs. Feel free to only look at the things that say your team did great

 

Also, big thanks to @alexfall862 for organizing a phenomenal recruiting year using only google sheets. A lot of hours must have gone into it, and I for one am very appreciative.

 

Let's start off with what I used to base alot of my methodology on. I assigned each recruit a rating which correlates to what I thought their junior year overall rating would be. So when you see average ratings: That is directly what I would expect the average overall to be based on my guess as to their starting skill (fed by starting overall and star rating) and 2 years of progressions based on their potential. So these ratings DO TAKE POTENTIAL into heavy account. To the point that it was probably too much, as it gives a 3 star with B+ potential the same grade as a 4 star with C+ potential. I honestly should have put a little more weight into stars as I have made these graphs showing the likelihood of different star-potential combinations becoming a B or A overall player in their junior/senior year. These numbers just come from all players on rosters this year.

 

1638589175055.png.c6f560f9f8a257d704a9e19a72824f12.png1638589196213.png.449a2c39f5b1cd22c0cfa39e9f17cfec.png

 

As you can see: 5 stars are VERY good. As you can see, there is only 1 current 5-star upperclassmen who is not an A overall player.

Conversely, there are NO current 3 star A overall juniors, no matter how high their potential, whereas you can see the increasing likelihood of a 4 star hitting that threshold depending on their potential. By senior year, it does seem like the A and A+ potential guys break even with the 4 star C / C- potentials, but this is what informs a lot of my opinions.

 

Now let's go to a few graphs:

First: Average recruiting class by conference

1638589405079.png.9eb5bf13a32cd8a8c328057c53c1d7b8.png

Not so unexpected here with the SEC leading the way, closely followed by the Sun Belt. Not much of a P5 - G5 split.

 

Next: a little table about affinities

Number of AffinitiesNumber of teamsAverage Score
029722.9827586
113858.3076923
217808
37721.5714286

 

The 3 star average is heavily skewed by 2 or 3 of those 7 teams going inactive, but it does look like the single affinity schools fared the best, and adding additional affinities was not overpowered in the end (although having no affinities was still a handicap).

 

Next: A breakdown of schools that I thought had the best recruiting class at each position (and a special mention to Michigan for recruiting 7 QBs. 1 of them has to pan out right?!?!)

 

PositionBest2nd Best3rd BestSpecial Mention
CHoustonNorth CarolinaBoise
FBNebraskaWashington StateUtah
KDukeColorado StateBowling Green
PWashington StateMarshallAir Force
QBTennesseeBoise StateNorth CarolinaMichigan
FSUCLALSUUNLV / Houston
SSNavyOhio StateArizona
TESMUOklahoma StateKansas
RBWashingtonPenn StateTennessee
CBBowling GreenTexas StateUNLV
DEPenn StateTennesseeOklahoma State
DTTennesseeTulsaHouston
ILBBaylorTexas StatePurdue
OGWashington StateFSUHouston
OLBWMUSMUTulsa
OTMemphisTennesseeLSU
WRNebraskaMichiganTAMU

 

 

Next: When you see these class scores this is all using the official 247 formula where top-recruits are weighted more heavily: As in the 10th best recruit only contributes 2/3 the value of the best recruit and drops to 1/2 by recruit 15 and 1/6 by recruit 25 (so having your 20-25th best recruits by a tiny bit better isn't as important as having more star power at the top)

 

This graph shows the final 247 scores for all user schools AND shows their scores at weeks 5, 10, and 15 to see how the class trended throughout the year.

 

1638590381398.thumb.png.708531fcab73689631b2ea55506a1d0e.png

It looks very busy in aggregate, but I think it's plenty digestible when focusing on an individual school.

 

Next: A graph of average potential by recruiting class

1638590573732.thumb.png.4614864ece74e24bcf11556aee4d070c.png

 

Here, the potential directly corresponds to how much their overall is "expected" to increase each year. A C is 4, a B is about 5.5, and an A is 7

 

Those are all the major charts. I have plenty more info if anybody has a particular request. Also am still going to do individual class grades for the SEC and those who requested it on my other post

 

Below is going to be a very large table with a whole lot of numbers to look at if you're interested.

 

SchoolConferenceNum AffinitiesNum B and up PotentialAverage PotentialNum 2 StarsNum 3 StarsNum 4 StarsNum 5 StarsTop-10 recruits scoreTop 25 Recruit score247 Class ScoreESPN RatingRivals Rating247 RankNum RecruitsAverage Croot Rating
TennesseeSEC274.76061814961125456.64085592073315512545
Texas A&MSEC185.120131204631077418.02362322005260422543.08
Bowling GreenMAC194.760101414631071415.67347892052284032542.84
Penn StateB1G164.76016724711063414.67325882003259842542.52
HoustonAAC0175.5214804641062414.57604911926213352542.48
Ohio StateB1G2145.6019604501062404.25404191972223172542.48
UNLVMountain West084.820111404561068410.57251532048264362542.72
KentuckySEC095.060151004511054400.52304742006245192542.16
NebraskaB1G124.3015724601030393.843997619772543122541.2
MissouriSEC1115.020151004491059402.48931381995239282542.36
San Diego StateMountain West2125.28215804471047397.145058419612213102541.88
VirginiaACC164.88116804481038391.33874819522355132541.52
BaylorBig 122145.36218324471045394.879056219472242112541.8
ArizonaPAC1236.02613304451016382.854072618071575162540.64
LSUSEC264.512131004461014.5380.828954519862400182540.58
KansasBig 12094.96019604271017371.305417819592225222540.68
North TexasC-USA0105415604381016377.256799218962134192540.64
Boise StateMountain West054.5321751431999.5365.062329819202256282539.98
GeorgiaSEC2155.54512604351000368.55219518761827262540
DukeACC3145.4120404381031383.419084919192060152541.24
PurdueB1G0135.3316504331003371.274047319091991232540.12
OregonPAC054.75111110436977370.04429119032381242440.70833333
NavyAAC2105516314411008375.082881518961860202540.32
Texas StateSun Belt014.42019424351016373.270342819662464212540.64
TulsaAAC3195.729166667220204381000381.638534318301834172441.66666667
MiamiACC2125.26113704271000366.346444318641994272540
ArkansasSEC214.45238095201551433859346.297120516482000372140.9047619
UCLAPAC304.0601762426997360.360741319802583302539.88
MinnesotaB1G064.53411100415982.5350.155785519462344362539.3
Western MichiganMAC0125.3451521427984356.119473718481739332539.36
WisconsinB1G3185.9411930426959341.240312417871406402538.36
StanfordPAC3125.46715214291010368.675372518571817252540.4
Utah StateMountain West0125.77501251441839354.97184715531758352041.95
SMUAAC2125.3671141432978355.693306218341783342539.12
Washington StatePAC0125.6944444444941452753334.976773113811447421841.83333333
ColoradoPAC034.38636363601471423887342.910893717602278382240.31818182
LouisvilleACC0115.1241830427998363.200160718851879292539.92
Arizona StatePAC0126.10714285701310430588275.186541710891113531442
Ball StateMAC0135.141250421963342.203310918391730392538.52
MemphisAAC0105.5312531030436664300.537032712131241501641.5
UtahPAC0135.3758950432920339.642549517591588412438.33333333
North CarolinaACC164.8751771466701333.768408112691747431643.8125
Texas TechBig 12014.437501770424968357.937636418772308322440.33333333
New MexicoMountain West1166.0263157896830431759316.042282213751176451939.94736842
Oklahoma StateBig 12134.54347826101670432934357.945755218152120312340.60869565
Central MichiganMAC1246.2811300389882284.30495931577555522535.28
ClemsonACC254.84210526301810408757306.111855114471497471939.84210526
CaliforniaPAC204.2501550406785307.419962515581821462039.25
Florida StateACC2115.45312511050454686.5320.527085812581440441642.90625
West VirginiaBig 12024.23684210501360410749301.80383815031842491939.42105263
Air ForceMountain West224.1166666670492448640.5302.1050412432124481542.7
MichiganB1G2105.208333333116614511001389.381883318752246142441.70833333
Kansas StateBig 12044.9642857140680445604290.86953511411545511443.14285714
SyracuseACC1450470441482244.55600589041234541143.81818182
ToledoMAC0106.04166666711100423501240.249074911855551241.75
Colorado StateMountain West0116.4545454552700409440206.9760979780585571140
TulaneAAC265.853331444444231.7314202777967561044.4
MarshallC-USA104.2857142860421289289145.271075156580558741.28571429
WashingtonPAC245.9166666671320267267144.571071745652659644.5
USCPAC304.5050019519593.749772237637560539
NevadaMountain West0040200767635.9600444115115064238
Virginia TechACC0030020787837.9578246616733463239
TCUBig 12304.125013016216281.4111217833547461440.5
MarylandB1G025.375020014314362.6051652425515062435.75
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Posted

Now let's go to a few graphs:

First: Average recruiting class by conference

 

1638589405079-png.2004

 

 

Is that some Sun Belt Fun Belt action going on there?

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Posted
Thanks for this tremendous write up. This is most likely going to impact my recruiting plan next year
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