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Posted

New charts every week!

 

Instead of expected stars to grade the class, I have given each player a "rating" which should be an estimate of how good they will be as a Junior. This takes into account their overall and star rating for initial rating, and a theoretical progression over 2 years based on potential. This should hopefully strike a balance between high potential players who may end up really good, but only for a year or 2 vs. instant contributors with a lower ceiling. For some ballpark ranges, 5 stars are around 50-55 points, 4 stars and good 3 stars are around 40-50 and an "average" 3 star recruit is 38 or 39 points.

 

To get the overall score, just add up the players you're in solo lead for plus 40% of the stars you're in a battle for (so if you're the only name on a 4 star, a 3 star, and battling for a 5 star you get 9 expected stars) .

 

This week the main chart is changing slightly. Now that a lot of classes are filling up and in the lead for > 25 recruits, I'm using scores based only on top-25 croots.

So red dots are just the sum score of the top-25 recruits, blue dots are all recruits, and yellow is the 247 score which assigns a much higher weight to your top recruits and very little to how good your 25th best recruit is.

 

REMINDER THAT THIS IS NOT A PROJECTION OF HOW CLASSES WILL FINISH, RATHER IT SHOWS WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF EVERYBODY SIGNED RIGHT NOW

 

1635449702434.thumb.png.b38cf83f6f6e819b18575cc7707661fc.png

 

Lots of new info to look at here. But the top has stayed with mostly a similar group. You may notice Penn State with a massive 247 score, their top-6/7 recruits are better than anybody elses top 6/7 so they get a big bonus on the high end from that.

 

Next: A chart comparing class score, to the average ranking of recruits:

 

1635449868912.thumb.png.bde6269dfc81b950021b5417ec89eeb0.png

 

Right means better recruits, up means more of them.

 

Next: A breakdown of who is going after potential vs. who is going after star power

1635449934647.thumb.png.95d8a0f053e4461e4ecb314eedd19f89.png

Here you see Central Michigan going after a lot of B and A potential guys, regardless of if they're 2 or 3 stars, with a much smaller spread for everyone else. Time will tell which method is more successful.

 

Next is a fun one: Average recruit distance from campus

1635450008905.thumb.png.5507bf43c5855db52a6f62f5ab5909a3.png

 

As you may expect, California schools make up the top (and bottom) of this metric.

 

Lastly, a quick revisit of which conference schools have the best average classes.

1635450058561.png.aedfbf3ddcc20899b66299ed7c06f73d.png

A pretty resounding lead for the SEC, and I think in future years this will provide the bedrock for them to get 3 or 4 teams into the playoffs to come.

 

Those are all the charts I have for this week! Only 4 weeks left to recruit so better get those good noodles in!

  • Like 8
Posted
You're not just saying that cause you're now #1 in a metric are you :thonk3D:

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