2021 Conference Championship Games Scenarios

[Rocketcan]

Big thanks to @PoopyRhinoPickle for doing the dirty work on checking the records and running through all of the tiebreakers.

 

AAC

 

Temple (9-3, 6-2) vs. Tulsa (12-0, 8-0)

 

ACC

 

Atlantic Division: Florida State (11-0, 8-0)

 

Coastal Division:

• If Virginia (8-3, 5-2) defeats Virginia Tech, they will represent the Coastal Division in the championship game.
  
• If Virginia loses, Georgia Tech (5-6, 5-3) will represent the division instead.
  

Big XII

 

Texas (10-2, 7-2) vs. the winner of Baylor (8-3, 6-2) at TCU (7-4, 6-2)

 

Big 10

 

Western Division: Wisconsin (10-1, 8-0)

 

Eastern Division:

 

This is easily the craziest tiebreaker situation I've seen since the IRL 1999 NFL season.

• The division comes down to Rutgers (5-6, 5-4) and Penn State (6-5, 4-4).
  
• If Ohio State and Penn State lose, Rutgers is in.
  
• If Penn State wins and Ohio State loses, Penn State is in.
  
• If Penn State and Ohio State win, then the tiebreakers go absolutely nuts: (You might be wondering why Penn State doesn't just get to go if they win since they hold a head to head tiebreaker over Rutgers. Well, because if Ohio State wins alongside Penn State, that produces a three-way tie [really a 4 way tie with Michigan State but they drop fairly early]. However, at the end, Ohio State loses the last tiebreaker by a bit no matter what happens next week so they are always out.)
  
  • Tied Conference record
    
  • Tied head-to-head record
    
  • Tied Divisional record
    
  • Tied Divisional record against opponents that are NOT part of the tie.
    
  • Then it goes to the result of non-divisional conference opponents' overall record.
    
    • As of today, Rutgers and Penn State's non-divisional conference opponents' record sit at 23-10. Rutgers played Wisconsin, Illinois, and Northwestern. Penn State played Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa.
      
    • So if Penn State and Ohio State both win, the following scenarios will apply:
      
      • If Iowa wins, Penn State will represent the Eastern Division. (Penn State's non-divisional conference opponents' record will always be better than Rutgers' in this case.)
        
      • If Iowa loses and Illinois wins, Penn State goes. (Penn State's and Rutgers' non-divisional conference opponents' records will be the same, so it comes down to the head-to-head tie breaker thanks to Ohio State's non-divisional conference opponents' record being much worse.)
        
      • If Iowa loses and Illinois loses, Rutgers goes. (Rutgers' non-divisional conference opponents' record will always be better than Penn State's in this case.)
        

C-USA

 

Western Division: North Texas (9-2, 7-1)

 

Eastern Division: Old Dominion (9-2, 7-1)

 

MAC

 

Western Division: Ball State (5-7, 5-3)

 

Eastern Division: Ohio (9-2, 7-1)

 

That's right, Ball State gets a berth in the CCG thanks to the following tiebreakers:

1. Tied conference record with Western Michigan (7-5, 5-3) and Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3)
   
2. Ball State, Western Michigan and Central Michigan each went 1-1 against each other.
   
3. Ball State had a record of 4-1 in the division, while Western Michigan and Central Michigan went 3-2. Therefore, Ball State represents the West.
   

MWC

 

Mountain Division: Air Force (8-3, 7-1)

 

West Division: San Diego State (9-3, 6-2)

 

PAC-12

 

Coastal Division: Winner of Oregon State (7-4, 5-3) at Oregon (7-4, 6-2)

 

Southern Division: Arizona (10-2, 7-2)

 

SEC

 

Western Division: Alabama (10-1, 7-0)

 

Eastern Division: Kentucky (11-0, 8-0)

 

Sun Belt

 

Western Division: Texas State (11-1, 8-0)

 

Eastern Division: Appalachian State (9-3, 6-2)

[rabidsnowman]

SEC

 

Western Division: Alabama (10-1, 7-0)

 

Eastern Division: Kentucky (11-0, 8-0)

 

 

The loser of this game is still almost certainly a playoff team. Only a couple scenarios I can see where Bama loses this and falls far enough to miss the playoff, and UK is in no matter what, just like Florida State and Tulsa. So the SEC is virtually guaranteed 2 playoff teams apart from nearly all the top teams losing their conference championship games..

[subsequent]

Holy shit lol. Big10 East and MAC West are wild.

[TuscanSota]

One season in, and the B1G is too big to decide who wins their division. SMH

[Minnow]

Damn East Big 10 sucks.

[alexfall862]

As a Nebraska fan, I have PTSD from 5+ loss B1G championship game teams.

[subsequent]

Understatement...